000 AXNT20 KNHC 140530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N to 15N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and between the tropical wave and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: little to no precipitation is directly related to the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 18N, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N to 20N. Strong upper level winds are expected to inhibit the development of this feature for the next few days. The system will move toward the WNW, through the end of the week. Expect locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, in the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on Thursday, and in Hispaniola on Friday. This system has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours, and during the next 5 days. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 17N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 17N northward from the tropical wave westward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland in Belize, and in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Belize and Honduras. Some speed convergence is evident on the western side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Senegal, to 09N18W. The ITCZ is along 07N/08N from 21W to 36W, to 09N40W, and to 07N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 225 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 36W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the border of Georgia and Florida, from the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, to the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to 27N94W. The front continues as stationary from 27N94W, along 27N/28N into Texas, and eventually into northern Mexico. The front has been showing signs of dissipating during the last few hours. Precipitation: isolated moderate, dissipating with time, is from the frontal boundary southward, from 90W westward. The current frontal boundary will continue to dissipate through Wednesday. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday. The second cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico on Friday evening, and then stall and weaken in the SE Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. Fresh NE winds are expected to the north of the front on Friday and Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from 17N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the islands of the NE Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 20N between 58W and 70W. Isolated moderate also covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N northward between 70W and 80W, including in the coastal waters of Hispaniola and Cuba. A tropical wave is along 81W, from Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 17N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 17N northward from the tropical wave westward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is inland in Belize, and in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Belize and Honduras. Some speed convergence is evident on the western side of the tropical wave. A surface trough curves from the Mona Passage toward the Paraguana Peninsula of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. The monsoon trough is along 09N/12N, from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 71W westward, in the waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure, along a tropical wave that is to the east of Barbados, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday. The low pressure center will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. The wind speeds will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea on Thursday evening, as high pressure builds to the north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from 32N47W, to 26N53W, beyond the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 31N/32N between 49W and 59W. A second surface trough extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 35N42W to 30N42W and to 24N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 40W and 64W. A cold front passes through 32N74W, to the coast of SE Georgia, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is about 200 nm to the east of the cold front. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 64W westward. A tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 18N, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N to 20N. Strong upper level winds are expected to inhibit the development of this feature for the next few days. The system will move toward the WNW, through the end of the week. Expect locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds across the central and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, in the Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on Thursday, and in Hispaniola on Friday. This system has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours, and during the next 5 days. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml, for more details. A surface trough is along 34N29W 30N26W 20N18W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 32N to 35N between 24W and 29W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the northeast of the trough from 28N northward, and within 120 nm of the trough on the SW side from 29N northward. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on Friday evening. The cold front will extend from 31N69W to South Florida on Saturday evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected to the north of the front this weekend. $$ mt