000 AXNT20 KNHC 131025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N-20N with axis near 38W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N-12N between 36W-41W. A tropical wave extends from 05N-20N with axis near 53W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 12N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-24N between 46W-57W. Some slow development is possible today. However, by tonight, upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Jamaica and Haiti as well as within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 10N15W to 07N21W to 06N28W. The ITCZ begins near 06N28W and continues to 08N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N41W to 10N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted from 05N-17N east of 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure anchored by a 1017 mb high near 27N88W provides light to gentle variable wind across the gulf waters. A line of showers,remnants of a former front, extends from the Florida Straits westward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fair weather conditions dominate elsewhere. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A cold front extending from 29N93W to 27N97W will stall later today before dissipating at night. A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening. The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong NNE winds are expected behind the front through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are in the far eastern Caribbean being supported by an upper level trough that extends from the central tropical Atlc SW to a base near northern Colombia. Diffluence between the upper trough and an upper level high over the western half of the basin supports similar rainshower activity over the SW and NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a tropical wave near 75W is generating showers between Haiti and Jamaica. A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles today and Wed, and to the eastern half of the Caribbean Wed through Sat night. Moderate trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds Thu evening as high pressure establishes N of the area. These winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. For more information on the tropical waves, see the Tropical Waves section above. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extending from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas near 25N78W will start weakening today and extend from 31N72W to near 26N74W this evening, before dissipating early on Wed. A second cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri evening and extend from 31N71W to near 26N80W Sat evening. Fresh to strong NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and will affect the waters N of the Bahamas. Otherwise, a couple of surface trough are over the central and eastern Atlc supporting scattered showers. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere. For information on tropical waves, see the Tropical Waves section above. && Ramos