000 AXNT20 KNHC 130519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis over the central Atlantic. The wave's axis extends along 38W from 01N- 11N. At this time, scattered showers are noted from 06N-10N between 35W-40W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 04N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 12N52W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly east of the wave/low from 10N-16N between 48W-52W. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves generally westward near 15 kt. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave, affecting northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to 08N35W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N40W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered showers are noted from 02N-09N between east of 24W and north of the ITCZ from 08N-12N between 45W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the southeast Gulf. Surface ridge continues building across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb surface high located near 27N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the Yucatan Peninsula south of 21N near the surface trough along the coast. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, as noted in latest scatterometer data. Seas range between 1-2 ft. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A cold front will reach the far northern Gulf waters early on Tue then stall before dissipating Tue night. A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri evening. The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong NNE winds are expected behind the front through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave currently over the west-central Caribbean. A surface trough is over the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Caribbean, analyzed from 21N62W to 12N66W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough across the Lesser Antilles. To the southwest, the monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 10N77W to a 1010 mb low near 09N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N west of 80W. Moderate trade winds are noted in the central Caribbean, while light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Seas average 2-4 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. Fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will diminish Tue morning. A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Tue and Wed and to the E Caribbean Wed through Sat night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves across the basin. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N73W to South Florida coast near 25N80W. Scattered showers prevail along the boundary. To the east, another surface trough extends south from a 1016 mb low pressure near 33N52W to 28N59W to 23N68W. Another trough is analyzed from 26N52W to 23N58W. Scattered showers and tstorms prevail along and east of the trough between 46W-55W. A surface trough associated to an upper level low to the northwest is analyzed south of the Canary Islands from 29N29W to 22N15W. Scattered showers are noted north of the trough axis. The cold front will start weakening from near 31N72W to the northern Bahamas Tue evening, and dissipate on Wed. A second cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri evening and extend from 31N71W to near 26N80W Sat evening. Fresh to strong NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and will affect the waters N of 27N. && Torres