000 AXNT20 KNHC 122313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis over the central Atlantic. The wave's axis extends along 37W from 02N- 12N. At this time, scattered showers are noted from 06N-11N between 34W-41W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 12N52W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly east of the wave/low from 10N-18N between 46W-52W. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves generally westward near 15 kt. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W from 07N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave, affecting northern Colombia at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from 08N29W to 06N37W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N38W to 06N42W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered showers are noted from 02N-08N between 12W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the southeast Gulf. Surface ridge continues building across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb surface high located near 27N89W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, as noted in latest scatterometer data. Seas range between 1-2 ft. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. The cold front will reach the far northern Gulf waters Tuesday, where it will stall and weaken through Wed. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This front will extend from near the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico Fri night, then stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat night. The front will bring an increase in winds and seas to the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave currently over the west-central Caribbean. A surface trough is over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean, analyzed from 19N61W to 13N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough across the islands. To the southwest, the monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 10N77W to a 1010 mb low near 10N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N between 75W-84W. Moderate trade winds are noted in the central Caribbean, while light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Seas average 2-4 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. Fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will pulse through this evening. The next tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Tue and Wed. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves across the basin. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N76W to the central Florida coast near 27N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N77W to 24N79W. Scattered showers prevail along both boundaries. To the east, another surface trough is analyzed from 31N55W to 27N63W to 23N68W. Scattered showers prevail along and east of the trough between 46W-54W. The west Atlantic cold front will extend from near 31N71W to the northern Bahamas by Tue evening, then slowly dissipate through Wed. Another cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States late Fri. The front will extend from near 31N71W to central Florida Sat night. $$ ERA