000 AXNT20 KNHC 121656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 20N southward moving W at 15 kt. A 1014 mb low is along the wave near 11N. Scattered moderate convection is mostly east of the wave from 09N-20N between 45W-52W. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves generally westward near 15 kt. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the wave south of SW Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 05N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is pushing southward across the eastern Gulf. A 1018 mb high is located near 27N89W. A trough is in the Bay of Campeche from 23N89W to 18N93W. Thunderstorms are noted west of this trough, S of 23N between 91W-96W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin. Seas average 1-2 ft. A cold front extending off the coast of central Florida to the central Gulf will shift E of the basin today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night. This front will extend from near the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico Fri night. The front will bring an increase in winds and seas to the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. A surface trough is over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean from 19N60W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the islands and the eastern Caribbean from 11N- 17N between 60W-67W. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from a 1010 mb low near 11N76W to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 09N-14N between 78W- 83W. Moderate trade winds are noted in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas average 2-4 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Colombia. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will diminish this evening. A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Tue and Wed. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic. A weakening cold front extends across the Atlantic from 31N77W to the central Florida coast near 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends across the northern Bahamas to the Cuban coast from 30N77W to 23N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front and trough, N of 23N between 72W-82W. Another trough is analyzed from 28N60W to 22N67W. Scattered showers are within 50 nm of the trough. A mid-level trough over the west-central Atlantic is bringing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over an area in the Atlantic from 20N-34W between 41W-56W. A 1012 mb low is off the Mauritania/Western Sahara coast near 21N18W with a trough along the low from 26N16W to 18N16W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic with some moderate southerly winds in the western Atlantic near the cold front. Seas average 3-6 ft. The cold front will extend from near 31N72W to the northern Bahamas Tue morning, then slowly dissipate through Wed. Another cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States late Fri. $$ AReinhart