000 AXNT20 KNHC 121047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N-22N with axis near 48W, moving west about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-22N between 42W-54W. Some slight development is possible during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 71W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over Jamaica and Hispaniola adjacent waters as the wave traverses the region. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 10N15W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 05N37W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near 48W, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N E of 23W, and from 07N-10N between 31W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extending from 26N82W to 24N88W will exit the basin later today while weak high pressure continues to build across the basin. The high will support light to gentle variable wind through early on Tue. Light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate afterwards through Thu evening. The next cold front will come off the coast of Texas Thu night and extend from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night. Fresh to strong NNE winds will follow this front. Otherwise, aside from scattered showers off the western coast of the Yucatan pensinsula due to the pressence of a surface trough, fair weather conditions are elsewhere and are expected to continue through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central basin, supporting showers and tstms. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for further details. Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW basin supported by the EPAC monsoon trough while the base of an upper level trough extends to the E Caribbean, thus supporting isolated showers over the Lesser Antilles adjacent waters. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will diminish to moderate this evening. A tropical wave with axis near 48W, and with low chance of cyclone formation within the next 2 days, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat night. Rainshowers are expected over this area as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE winds elsewhere will change little through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave with low chance of cyclone development within the next 2 days is moving across the central Atlc with fresh to strong winds and scattered showers associated with it. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section above for further details. Moderate to locally fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold front extending from 31N77W to the coast of central Florida near 27N80W will diminish tonight. The front will extend from 30N75W to Great Abaco Island tonight, from 30N72W to 27N74W Tue night before dissipating farther NE on Wed night. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the SW N Atlc region the remainder forecast period, except S of 22N where the passage of a tropical wave over the E Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh winds Thu and Fri. The remainder central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Azores high. Otherwise, an upper level trough support a pair of surface troughs that are generating scattered showers and tstms N of 22N between 39W and 56W. $$ Ramos