000 AXNT20 KNHC 120551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 47W to the S of 18N moving west about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 43W-49W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally westward near at 10-15 kt. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to reach the tropical waters between 55W and the Lesser Antilles on Tue. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours, and through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 69W to the S of 21N. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity over Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N and east of 20W south of the monsoon trough and from 05N-13N between 33W-40W north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Florida to near 27N82W to 25N88W. Scattered showers are ahead of the frontal boundary forecast to move southeastward across central Florida this evening, reaching South Florida on Monday producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. A trough in the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the Bay of Campeche. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters with a 1013 mb high pressure located near 27N90W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly light to gentle winds are noted, except for gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. The high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf Mon night. This front will dissipate over the northern Gulf on Tue. A second and better defined cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front is forecast to reach the SE Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... There are two tropical waves across the basin. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough is noted over the Lesser Antilles extending from 16N60W to 10N63W. A few showers are in the vicinity of the trough. The combination of the Colombian 1007 mb low and the Pacific Monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection In the southwest Caribbean south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and Nicaragua. Drier conditions noted in the western Caribbean. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. Strong tropical wave, currently near 46W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat. Showers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An active tropical wave is moving across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Surface ridging extends over the region west of 66W, which will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold front in NE Florida adjacent waters. The front extends southward from S Carolina to NE Florida near 30N81W to the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low near 31N55W to 25N64W. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the trough covering the waters N of 27N between 51W-57W. Another trough is analyzed from 32N44W to 24N46W with scattered showers in the vicinity. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1037 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the Canary Islands and over the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 21N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. $$ MMT