000 AXNT20 KNHC 112318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 46W to the S of 17N moving west about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-17N between 42W-48W. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally westward near at 10-15 kt. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to reach the tropical waters between 55W and the Lesser Antilles on Tue. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit additional development by midweek. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours, and through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 69W/70W to the S of 21N. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity over Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC's waters, with axis along 87W from 01N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 14N17W to 11N21W. The ITCZ continues from 11N21W begins near 09N27W to 00N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 12W-18W, and from 06N-10N between 32W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Florida to near 26N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the frontal boundary forecast to move will southeastward across central Florida this evening, reaching South Florida on Monday producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters with a 1015 mb high pressure located near 25N92W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. The high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf Mon night. This front will dissipate over the northern Gulf on Tue. A second and better defined cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front is forecast to reach the SE Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... There are two tropical waves across the basin. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for details. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. A strong tropical wave, currently near 46W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat. Showers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An active tropical wave is moving across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. W of 65W, surface ridging extending over the region will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent waters late tonight. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros Island by Tue morning, then begin to stall Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the region the remainder forecast period. A surface trough extends from 31N55W to 25N64W. An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the trough covering the waters N of 29N between 52W-55W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N45W to 25N47W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1037 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the Canary Islands and over the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 21N. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. $$ GR