000 AXNT20 KNHC 111714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been repositioned based on latest scatterometer data and satellite signature. The wave's axis extends along 44W from 00N-17N. Its estimated movement is west at 10-15 kt. Scatterometer data depicts very well the characteristic wind shift, with moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of the wave's axis. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-17N between 41W-47W. Slight development of this system is possible during the next two or three days while the system moves westward. Upper- level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave extends across the E Caribbean, with axis S of 22N and along 68W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 16N-22N between 65W-69W. A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC's waters, with axis along 86W from 01N-20N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the boundary at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 17N17W to 09N27W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 25N92W. A surface trough is analyzed over northern Florida north of 29N and along 86W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the western half of the basin, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Moderate SW winds in the NE gulf will diminish this evening. Weak high pressure will establish across the basin afterwards providing light to gentle variable wind through Tue. Light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the remainder forecast period ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW basin early on Fri. Fresh to strong NNE winds will follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... There are two tropical waves across the basin. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for details. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south- central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. A strong tropical wave, currently near 44W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the Caribbean waters through the week. Scattered moderate convection are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... There is a tropical wave moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The main feature across the basin is the tail of a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N56W to 25N63W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 34N41W to 29N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-34N between 40W-46W. Surface high pressure dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic. Surface ridging extending over the west Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent waters early on Mon. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros Island by Tue morning before dissipating NE of the central Bahamas on Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the region the remainder forecast period. $$ ERA