000 AXNT20 KNHC 111034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to 17N with axis near 45W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-20N between 40W and 50W. Slight development of this system is possible during the next two or three days while the system moves generally westward. Upper- level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of the week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis along the Mona Passage or near 67W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are across Puerto Rico and its adjacent waters. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 84W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm of the coasts of northern Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W to 08N22W to 07N29W. The ITCZ begins near 07N29W and continues to 10N42W, then resumes near 10N48W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N-10N between 28W-36W, and from 08N-14N between 55W-62W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is established across the basin with a 1013 mb high centered near 25N92W. This feature is supporting light to gentle variable wind, which is forecast to continue through Tue. Otherwise, light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the remainder forecast period ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW basin early on Fri. Fresh to strong NNE winds will follow this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... There are two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. A tropical wave, currently near 45W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat. Rainshowers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main feature across the basin is the tail of a stationary front that extends from 31N50W to 26N59W. This feature is being supported by a middle to upper level trough that is also generating scattered showers and tstms N of 25N between 41W and 58W. Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic. Surface ridging extending over the SW N Atlc waters will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent waters early on Mon. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros Island by Tue morning before dissipating NE of the central Bahamas on Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the region the remainder forecast period. $$ Ramos