211 AXNT20 KNHC 110603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 00N-17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 05N-18N between 39W and 44W. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. Latest ASCAT data suggests the tropical wave near 70W is farther E along 66W, where a well defined inverted-V pattern is noted. This wave has been re-located to 66W. The wave combined with a diffluent pattern aloft is supporting shower and thunderstorm activity over NE Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and regional waters. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 00N-19N, moving Westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on east side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and drops southwestward to near 07N29W. The ITCZ continues from 07N29W to 08N37W, then continues west of the tropical wave From 08N44W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 100 nm S of the ITCZ between 28W-31W, and from 08N-13N between 54W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure from the western Atlantic has settled in over the area. However, the most recent scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh winds across the north-central Gulf. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Gulf between Delta and the Atlantic ridge. An upper-level low is helping to induce convection over the Yucatan Peninsula with a surface trough south of 22N88W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds in the NE gulf will diminish Sun evening. Weak high pressure will establish across the basin afterwards providing light to gentle variable wind through Tue. Light to moderate N to NE wind will dominate the remainder forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A couple of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details. Low-topped trade wind showers are seen elsewhere across the basin with drier air noted over the central Caribbean. Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon. Moderate to fresh winds in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sun night. Gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere will change little through the period. A tropical wave, currently near 43W, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Tue and to the E Caribbean Wed through Fri. Rainshowers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave progresses westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The southwest periphery of high pressure centered well north of the area near 34N69W extends south-southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and Delta is allowing for fresh southeast winds to occur N of 30N W of 78W. These winds will diminish to moderate speeds Sun as Delta pulls farther to the northeast. A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 26N61W. A trough ahead of it is along a position from 25N57W to 20N64W and to just northeast of Puerto Rico. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the trough axis covering the waters from 17N-21N between 62W-66W. Another trough is analyzed from 28N42W to 18N45W. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the trough axis. There is another trough well depicted by the latest ASCAT near 20N51W to 11N54W. Moderate winds are noted from 16N-21N. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1036 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the Canary Islands and over the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 22N. As for the forecast, surface ridging extending over the region will continue to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Tue. The front will then weaken and stall from Bermuda into the Central Bahamas on Wed. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate the region the remainder forecast period. $$ MMT