000 AXNT20 KNHC 101803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Delta, at 10/1500 UTC, is near 33.1N 90.8W. This position also is about 56 nm/105 km to the NNW of Jackson in Mississippi. DELTA is moving NE, or 035 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico, within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Much more rain is inland, from Louisiana, to Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, to South Carolina. The hazards that will be affecting the land are: wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, and other weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather bureau office for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 17N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 05N to 16N. An Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 52W/53W, from 05N to 14N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 07N to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 270 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from Hispaniola southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 18N to Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Senegal, and it curves to 14N20W, and 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W, to 06N37W, from 06N41W to 10N50W, and from 12N54W to 13N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, in clusters, is from 03N to 10N between 04W and 17W, and within 150 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 55W and 62W. GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Tropical Depression Delta, at 10/1500 UTC, is near 33.1N 90.8W. This position also is about 56 nm/105 km to the NNW of Jackson in Mississippi. DELTA is moving NE, or 035 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico, within 300 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Much more rain is inland, from Louisiana, to Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, to South Carolina. The hazards that will be affecting the land are: wind, storm surge, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, and other weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather bureau office for more details. Tropical Depression Delta is inland in west central Mississippi. DELTA will continue to move away from the area during the rest of this weekend. Delta will have no more impact on the Gulf of Mexico waters. Weak high pressure will continue to build across the area into early next week, in the wake of DELTA. A weak trough will move across the north central Gulf of Mexico, today and tonight, and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, on Sunday and Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, about halfway between NW Cuba and the eastern sections of Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 360 nm of the cyclonic center in the southern semicircle, between 80W and the Gulf of Honduras. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 23N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb trough shows up well, in the GFE model field, vertically stacked with respect to the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the NE of the tropical wave, and within 820 nm to the east and southeast of the tropical wave. All the precipitation is occurring from 10N to 25N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 15N to 16N. Isolated moderate is between 72W and the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the tropical wave and 80W from 15N to 20N. The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from the monsoon trough to 15N from 80W westward, in the waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will pulse to strong speeds at night through Monday. Gentle to moderate trade winds, elsewhere, will change little through the period. The sea heights will be in the slight range, except for moderate seas in the south central Caribbean Sea, into next week. It is possible that a strong tropical wave may bring higher winds and building seas to the Atlantic Ocean waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands, from Tuesday through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N49W, to 26N63W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolate strong covers the Atlantic Ocean within 400 nm to the southeast of the cold front. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 20N northward from the cold front westward, in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and a surface trough, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 32N between 40W and 50W. The surface trough is along 27N43W 22N43W 16N45W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of the trough. A surface trough is along 26N54W 20N64W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 20N to 22N between 60W and 67W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 57W in the Atlantic Ocean and 68W in the Caribbean Sea. Some of the precipitation is affecting parts of SW Puerto Rico, and other islands of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure in the northern and central waters, from 65W westward, will begin to shift toward the east-northeast, from tonight through Monday, as a weak trough moves into the northwest part of the area. The trough will reach from near 31N71W, to the central Bahamas, and the Florida Straits, on Wednesday. $$ mt