000 AXNT20 KNHC 100601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Delta has weakened to a tropical storm as it moves farther inland centered near 31.2N 92.3W as of 10/0600 UTC, or about 15 nm ESE of Alexandria Louisiana. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection extends out 180 nm, mainly north of the center. A band of scattered moderate convection extends out between 90 to 180 nm east of the center. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today. Additional flooding is expected into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move across northeastern Louisiana this morning, northern Mississippi this evening, and into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Delta is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon over west-central Mississippi. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35/36W from 02N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N-17N. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the weekend or early next week as it moves westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and through 5 days. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis extends along 66W from 02N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis, mainly south of 16N. Another tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea with axis along 78W, from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are along and within 90 nm E of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W to 10N23W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 07N38W to 09N50W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 46W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Winds in the northern Gulf of Mexico will decrease to below 20 kt by 1200 UTC this morning as Delta moves farther inland. Seas over the northern Gulf will gradually subside to below 8 ft later in the day today. Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are noted offshore the NW Yucatan Peninsula off Progreso. Delta will move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon near 33N91W and to a remnant low Sunday evening near 37N85W. In its wake, weak high pressure will build across the area into early next week. A weak trough will move across the north-central Gulf today and tonight and across the eastern Gulf Sun and Sun night. Swell from Delta will continue over most of the area through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The only significant showers and tstorms currently over the Caribbean Sea are associated with the two tropical waves over the basin. See the tropical waves section above for details. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean and to the north of eastern Honduras. Gentle to locally moderate winds cover the remainder of the basin. Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas elsewhere today. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Moderate showers are noted off the north coast of Cuba to the south of Andros Island. Fresh E to SE winds are noted off northern Florida to 75W. These winds will become mainly moderate southeast to south winds on Sun and into early next week in response to a weak trough that will move over the northwest part of the area. A weak cold front extends from 32N55W to 28N62.5W and continues as a dissipating stationary front to 27N72W. A surface trough is from 32N50W to 25N56W, and another surface trough is from 24N59W to 20N63W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N-32N between 45W-62W. Farther east, fresh trades are seen from 14N-26N between 40W and the coast of Africa, with strong N to NE winds from 18N-24N, east of 26W. Gentle to moderate winds cover the remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 40W-75W. $$ Hagen