000 AXNT20 KNHC 090601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 09 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Delta is near 26.2N 93.6W at 09/0600 UTC, or about 215 nm S of Cameron Louisiana, moving NNW at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and within 120 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in the NE semicircle and within 210 nm SW semicircle. The center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then move inland along the SW Louisiana coast late this afternoon or this evening. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next few hours. Weakening is expected to begin later today as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast. NOAA buoy 42002 near 26.1N 93.6W recently measured a significant wave height of 35 ft and a pressure of 953 mb inside the eye. Prior to the eye passage, the buoy measured winds of 72 kt with gusts of 86 kt. Hurricane force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected along portions of the Gulf Coast later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 28W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis from 03N-13N. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development this weekend or early next week while the system is over the tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. The chance of development within the next 5 days is low. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis extends along 62W from 05N-23N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N-17N between 53W and the wave axis. Scattered showers are also seen from 20N-23N between 59W-64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of west Africa near 16N17W and extends to 10N23W to 07N35W. The ITCZ is from 07N35W to 05N45W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection described above in the tropical waves section, no significant convection is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... The circulation of Hurricane Delta covers the Gulf of Mexico west of 87W and north of 22N. Delta will move to near 27.4N 93.7W this morning, then begin to weaken as it moves inland to near 29.8N 93.0W this evening. Delta will weaken to a tropical storm near 32N92W Sat morning, then to a tropical depression well inland near 33.5N 90W Sat evening. In its wake, weak high pressure will build across the area into early next week. For further details on Major Hurricane Delta, see the Special Features section above. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered NW of Jamaica and E of the Cayman Islands. A recent ASCAT pass shows a N-S oriented surface trough along 72W. These features, along with abundant moisture at low to middle levels is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N-21N between 71W-76W, and from 17N-20N between 81W-86W. This includes Haiti and the Windward Passage. A recent ASCAT pass shows some fresh winds to the east of the surface trough between 69W-72W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave will enhance showers today over the Lesser Antilles before moving into the central Caribbean over the weekend. Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas elsewhere today. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 32N64W to 28N71W to 29N78W to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, north of 30.5N and east of 64W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the front west of 65W, although fresh E winds are noted in the Florida Straits and Old Bahama Channel. A 1017 mb high is near 26N66W. A surface trough extending from 30N50W to 25N57W is inducing some scattered showers near it. Surface high pressure dominates the remainder Atlantic from 20N-32N, with mainly gentle to moderate winds covering most of the basin west of 30W. For the forecast west of 65W, the front will stall today along 27N. The western portion of the front will lift back north as a warm front through early Sat. Behind the front, a tightening gradient will bring fresh northeast to east winds over most of the northern waters today through late Sat. A weak pressure pattern will allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas from Sun into early next week. $$ Hagen