000 AXNT20 KNHC 081022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Delta is centered near 23.4N 91.8W at 08/0900 UTC or 390 nm SSE of Cameron Louisiana moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is active within 90 nm of the northeastern semicircle and 120 nm of the southeastern semicircle. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through today, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland by late Fri or Fri night. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through today, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Fri. Peak seas near the center of Delta are forecast to build to at least 33 feet today as Delta moves over the central Gulf, with an expanding area of swell supporting combined seas in excess of 8 ft over most of the central and western Gulf. Very heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds, and a life- threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast Fri into early Sat. The heavy rain will then spread inland across the Mississippi Valley. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 23W/24W from 03N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 21W-24W. A tropical wave axis is along 59W from 06N-22N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 07N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing off African coast from Liberia to Senegal. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 30W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... The central and western Gulf of Mexico is currently dominated by the circulation of Hurricane Delta. See Special Features section above for details on Delta. Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico outside of the main area of Delta, a scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NW to N winds funneling along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in the far southwest Gulf, mainly due to swell. Buoy and platform data shows fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the northwest and north- central Gulf ahead of the advancing Delta. Buoy and ship observations show strong SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are observed over the east-central Gulf, just east of Delta. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed in the far eastern Gulf of Mexico close to the Florida coast. Hurricane Delta near 23.4N 91.8W 973 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Delta will move to 24.6N 93.0W this afternoon, 26.4N 93.7W Fri morning, 28.8N 93.4W Fri afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.3N 92.4W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.3N 90.9W Sat afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 34.6N 89.0W Sun morning. Delta will dissipate early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri and Sat through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered near Jamaica. Upper level divergence on the southeast side of the upper low is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from the coast of Colombia to off the coasts of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active from Providencia Island to Jamaica. Dry, subsident NE flow aloft between the upper low and an upper anticyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is suppressing most convective activity over the remainder of Cuba and the northwest Caribbean. High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas is supporting moderate trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, although fresh trade winds are possible off Venezuela and across the ABC islands. These fresh winds will be short lived as the high pressure should weaken this morning. Fresh southerly are likely ongoing over the Yucatan Channel, although should be diminishing through the morning as Delta moves farther away. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas elsewhere Fri. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 65W, 1018 mb high pressure is centered northeast of the Bahamas, near 28N71W. This is supporting moderate SE winds over the Old Bahama Channel, and light breezes and slight seas elsewhere west of 65W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. For the forecast, high pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will dissipate this morning ahead of a cold front approaching the area from north. The front will stall along roughly 27N Fri, then lift north as a warm front through Sat. A weak pressure pattern will follow and gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist Sun and Mon. Farther east, a relatively weak 1019 mb high pressure area is centered 30N42W, displaced southward due a frontal boundary over the north-central Atlantic. Farther east, several weak surface troughs are noted north of 20N between 30W-40W. This pattern is resulting in a somewhat subdued pressure gradient, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds farther south into the tropical Atlantic. Fresh NE winds were noted earlier off the coast of Africa. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. $$ Christensen