000 AXNT20 KNHC 071037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Delta is centered near 20.6N 86.4W at 07/0900 UTC or 30 nm ENE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 90 to 120 nm of the center, impacting Cozumel, the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Maximum wave heights are estimated to be around 30 ft near the center of Delta. Delta will move over the northeast tip of Yucatan and through the Yucatan Channel into the south-central Gulf by this afternoon, then continue across the central and northwest Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to make landfall along Louisiana by late Fri. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday, causing the potential for flash floods and mudslides. Looking ahead, there is a chance for life-threatening storm surge and flooding along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts starting Fri as Delta moves into the region. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis over Senegal along 16W is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed along the wave axis from 08N-14N. The tropical wave that was analyzed along 55W, moving to the W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N-15N between 50-52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N35W to 09N52W. No convection is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Delta. The 1005 mb remnant low of Gamma has dissipated over the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough extends from 21N89W to 24N92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 20N between 92W and 94W, where there are fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft. Strong winds and building rapidly building seas are noted near the Yucatan Channel ahead of Delta. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere within 4 to 6 ft seas in the eastern Gulf and 5 to 7 ft seas in the western Gulf. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of Delta starting Sat, allowing winds and seas to diminish. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. A vigorous upper-level low centered over the eastern Dominican Republic is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection to the south and southeast of the upper low, over much of the eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean, within light breezes and slight seas over the southwest part of the basin. Winds and seas will diminish in the northwest Caribbean through Thu after Delta leave the area. Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds mainly over the south-central Caribbean by late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W. No significant showers are noted along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the central Bahamas, including the Old Bahama Channel. A surface trough is analyzed along 64W from 24N-29N with no significant convection. Farther east, a 1026 mb high centered east of the Azores is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. Some Saharan dust is evident over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 10N and east of 50W. For the forecast west of 65W, stationary front extending from 31N65W to 30N70W to 30N77W will persist in the area through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with this front on Thu, then move east across the northern portion of the basin through the end of the week. $$ Christensen