000 AXNT20 KNHC 062340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Dangerous Hurricane Delta is located near 18.9N 84.1W at 2100 UTC or 187 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the center of Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N-23N between 82W-88W. Seas are rapidly building near the center of Delta as the winds continues to increase, and maximum wave heights are estimated to be 25 to 30 ft. Delta is a major category 4 hurricane. On the current forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to move WNW this evening and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Some minor weakening is likely late tonight and Wed as Delta interacts with the landmass of the Yucatan, then re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is E of the wave axis from 15N-22N between 48W-53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis over the Lesser Antilles S of 15N and inland over venezuela between 58W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N32W to 13N55W. Scattered showers and isolated are within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Delta. The 1005 mb remnant low of Gamma remains inland over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. The low will dissipate by Wed morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 19N-28N between 88W-92W. There is still a large area of fresh to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the central and southwest Gulf in the wake of Gamma. These winds and seas will gradually diminish through Wed, except for over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted in most other locations of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. Dry and sinking air on the western side of a vigorous Caribbean upper low is keeping Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with little to no afternoon convection today. However as the low shift westward tonight and Wed look for increasing clouds and strong afternoon convection. Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over the southwest Caribbean. Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu, moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern and central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 30N75W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No significant convection is associated with this system. Farther east, a 1030 mb high centered near the Azores at 39N18W is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds are evident. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift northward as a warm front through Sat. $$ Stripling