000 AXNT20 KNHC 061750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Delta is located near 17.5N 81.3W at 06/1500 UTC or 287 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center of Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N-22N between 80W-87W. Seas are rapidly building near the center of Delta as the winds increase, and maximum wave heights are estimated to be 20 to 25 ft. Delta is a major hurricane. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 15N-23N between 48W-53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is W of the wave axis over the Leeward and Windward Islands, partially due to an upper level low over the E Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 07N40W to 07N54W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Delta. The 1006 mb remnant low of Gamma is just inland over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. The low will dissipate by Wed morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 19N-28N between 88W-92W. There is still a large are of fresh to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the central and southwest Gulf in the wake of Gamma. Most of these winds and seas will diminish through late today, except for over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted in most other locations of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. Dry, subsident air on the western side of the Caribbean upper low is keeping Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with little to no cloud cover. Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over the southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu, moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern and central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to 30N76W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No significant convection is associated with this system. Farther east, a 1030 mb high centered near the Azores at 39N21W is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds are evident. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift northward as a warm front through Sat. $$ Formosa