000 AXNT20 KNHC 061048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Delta continues to intensify near 17.5N 81.3W at 06/0900 UTC or 360 nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is ongoing within 75 nm of the center of Delta. in addition, outer bands on the south side of Delta are evident, with strong thunderstorms active within 120 nm off the coast of eastern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua. Seas are rapidly building near the center of Delta as the winds increase, and maximum wave heights are estimated to be 20 to 25 ft. Delta will become a major hurricane as moves through the northwest Caribbean this afternoon, and will pass into through the Yucatan Channel and northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight before it enters into the south- central Gulf of Mexico. Delta will continue across the central Gulf through mid week and is expected to make landfall in Louisiana by late Fri or early Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N35W to 08N45W 07N55W. No significant convection is observed. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Delta. The remnant low of Gamma is off the north coast of Yucatan, and will move inland this morning and dissipate by Wed morning. A clusters of thunderstorms is active just to the west of Gamma, within about 120 nm off the coast of Merida, Mexico. There is still a large are of fresh to strong northerly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the central and southwest Gulf in the wake of Gamma. Most of these winds and seas will diminish through late today, except for over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted in most other locations of the Gulf. This will be a brief respite ahead of the approaching Hurricane Delta, expected to enter the south-central Gulf tonight and early Wed. Delta will move to 21.8N 88.5W Wed afternoon, 23.0N 90.4W Thu morning, 24.2N 91.5W Thu afternoon, and 25.8N 92.0W Fri morning. Delta is forecast to move inland over south- central Louisiana Fri night into early Sat. The intensity, size and track of Delta will generate large seas over most of the central and western Gulf by mid week, slowly subsiding through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. An upper low centered just off the Leeward Islands is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and much of the far eastern Caribbean. Dry, subsident air on the western side of the upper low is keeping the area from eastern Cuba to the Virgin Islands with little to no cloud cover. Outside the main area of Delta, strong W to NW winds are noted across Belize, over the Gulf of Honduras, and along the Honduran coast, with seas estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean, with light breezes and modest seas over the southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, Winds and seas will diminish in the wake of Delta over the northwest Caribbean by late Wed into early Thu, moderate SE winds through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds will again become the norm over the eastern and central Caribbean by mid week, with continued light breezes and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 32N66W to 29N75W then becomes a stationary front to north of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N81W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted along the front. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are north of the front N of the front and W of 75W. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the southern Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic along 60W from 22N to 30N. No significant convection is associated with this system. Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure area centered near the Azores at 39N23W is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. No major showers or thunderstorms are noted over much of the central and eastern Atlantic, although some Saharan dust is evident. The exception is off the coast of southern Morocco and northern Western Sahara where scattered showers and fresh NE winds are evident. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will persist off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift northward as a warm front through Sat. $$ Christensen