000 AXNT20 KNHC 060532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Delta is centered near 16.8N 80.3W at 06/0300 UTC, or about 150 nm SW of Negril, Jamaica and 155 nm SSE of Grand Cayman, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted 120 nm in the NW quadrant and 95 nm in the NE quadrant. An area of numerous strong convection is south of the center from 12N-15N between 80W-83W. Seas are up to 17 ft with 12 ft seas extending 30 nm in the W semicircle, 90 nm in the NE quadrant, and 45 nm in the SE quadrant. A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday night. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rainfall from Delta will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Gamma is now a post-tropical cyclone and is centered near 21.6N 88.4W at 06/0300 UTC. Estimated central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the northern Yucatan. Seas are up to 13 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 90 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the SW quadrant, and 270 nm in the NW quadrant. There are no more advisories being issued on this system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of this wave from 09N-23N between 43W-52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monson trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-12N between 18W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Delta. A trough extends north of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma from 22N89W to 28N88W. Scattered moderate convection is along the northern portion of the trough from 24N-29N between 86W-90W. Moderate ENE are to the east of the trough, with fresh to strong NNE winds on the west side of the trough. Ridging continues across the western Gulf anchored by a 1019 mb high near 21N97W. Fresh winds are seen from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate easterly winds are in the SE Gulf with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. Outside the influence of Gamma, seas average 3-6 ft in the NW Gulf and 6-9 ft elsewhere. Hurricane Delta is expected to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan Channel by late Tue, then move across the NE tip of Yucatan Wed morning before entering the south-central Gulf. Delta will reach 23.0N 89.5W Wed evening, 24.0N 90.8W Thu morning, 25.2N 91.7W Thu evening, then to near the Louisiana coast by late Fri. Meanwhile, Gamma will move inland to 21.1N 88.9W Tue morning, inland to 20.2N 89.6W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the eastern Caribbean from 11N-16B between 59W-71W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring in the SW Caribbean, influenced by the monsoon trough which is along the Costa Rica and NW Panama coasts, from 09N-13N between 73W-83W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds in the SW basin. Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted off the coasts of Belize and the southern Yucatan. Outside the influence of Delta, seas average 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft north of Honduras. Hurricane Delta will move to 18.1N 82.0W Tue morning, 19.8N 84.6W Tue evening as a major hurricane, then move inland over the northeast tip of Yucatan near 21.5N 87.1W Wed morning. Delta will continue to intensify as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico through late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N71W to north of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29N81W. Showers are noted along the front. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are north of the front N of the front and E of 76W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 32N57W to 22N57W. No significant convection is associated with this system. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving off the coast of Western Sahara to the Canary Islands. Fresh winds are north of Hispaniola, moderate to fresh winds in the Straits of Florida, and moderate to fresh winds to the east of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere as ridging dominates most of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high over the Azores. The front extending Florida will persist off NE Florida through mid week. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with this front Thu, then lift northward as a warm front through Sat. $$ AReinhart