000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Gamma is centered is near 22.1N 88.1W at 05/2100 UTC or about 100 nm ENE of Progreso Mexico, moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the depression center. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula Tuesday and remain over the northern portion of the peninsula and dissipate Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Hurricane Delta is centered near 16.5N 79.6W at 06/0000 UTC or 130 nm SSW of Negril Jamaica moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 12N- 18N between 74W-83W. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of this wave from 12N-22N north of the ITCZ. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 12N51W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 12N53W and goes to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ from 09N-19N and east of the 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.D. Gamma, and Hurricane Delta. Outside of the area of showers and thunderstorms over the east central Gulf, a fairly dry pattern is in place with no significant convection noted W of Gamma, 90W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted over most of the Gulf outside of the main area of Gamma, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes are noted over the far nw Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. The development and track of both T.D. Gamma and Hurricane Delta will be the main influences on the forecast for the Gulf of Mexico through late week. Gamma will drift SW across the western Yucatan Peninsula and weaken to a remnant low tonight, then dissipate by Wed. Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Hurricane Delta near 16.2N 79.4W 983 mb will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, strengthen to a major hurricane and move to near 22.6N 88.7W Wed afternoon, move to near 24.8N 91.5W Thu afternoon and near 28.5N 91.5W Fri afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane Delta. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from 10N80W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Other than the area of showers and thunderstorms noted above associated with Hurricane Delta, thunderstorms are active off Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the eastern Caribbean from 12N-16N between 62W-68W. Fresh to strong west winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of Roatan and east of Belize. Strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are active between Jamaica and the southern peninsula of Haiti. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted over the Caribbean. Beyond the impacts of T.S. Delta mentioned above, the pattern will gradually shift to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with the strongest winds over the south- central Caribbean by late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 30N73W to 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N57W to 22N55W, depicted by a sharp wind shift. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 39N29W. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight, ahead of another weak front expected to move over the Atlantic waters east of Georgia. The second front will weaken as it drifts south to the waters off NE Florida, then dissipate by mid-week. Strong SE winds are possible off NE Florida by late Fri. $$ MTorres/Ramos