452 AXNT20 KNHC 022217 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Five is centered near 18.8N 85.3W at 02/2100 UTC or 130 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 180 nm SE quadrant, and 240 nm W semicircle, including over northern Honduras, the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and each the coast of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Sat afternoon. The cyclone is likely to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Sun or Sun night, then turn west. This slow- moving tropical cyclone is expected to bring heavy rain that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba, and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, as well as northern portions of Central America. Seas will build over the far northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Saturday night, and in the south-central Gulf through early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. A broad and disorganized area of scattered moderate convection resides from about 05N to 15N between 30W and 50W in association with this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located from 11N to 19N between 60W and 70W. This activity is producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more favorable for development later this weekend while the system continues moving W or possibly WNW. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation with this wave in the next 2 days and a medium chance in the next 5 in the Central and Western Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to 09N33W, and from 07N40W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ between 28W-33W. Otherwise, convection near the ITCZ is mainly associated with the tropical waves described above. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southwest Florida near 26N81W to 22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the front. Strong NE winds are occurring NW of this boundary across much of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, a reinforcing cold front is moving through the northern Gulf, stretching from near Tampa Bay to 24N95W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow the reinforcing front. Tropical Depression Twenty-Five near 18.8N 85.3W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Twenty-Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 86.1W Sat morning, move to 20.5N 87.0W Sat afternoon, 21.6N 87.5W Sun morning, 22.3N 87.7W Sun afternoon, 22.5N 88.0W Mon morning, and 22.5N 88.8W Mon afternoon. Twenty-Five will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.5N 91.0W Tue afternoon. A stationary front from southwest Florida to the central Yucatan adjacent waters will dissipate tonight. A reinforcing cold front over the northern Gulf will move across the northeast Gulf today, eventually stalling and dissipating across southern Florida and the southeast Gulf through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection in the NW Caribbean is due to Tropical Depression Twenty-Five. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Convection between 60W-70W is due to the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, also described above in the Tropical Waves section. Light to gentle winds are noted in the far SW Caribbean south of 14N west of 76W. Seas are averaging 4 to 7 ft. Tropical Depression Twenty-Five near 18.8N 85.3W 1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Twenty-Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 86.1W Sat morning, move to 20.5N 87.0W Sat afternoon, 21.6N 87.5W Sun morning, 22.3N 87.7W Sun afternoon, 22.5N 88.0W Mon morning, and 22.5N 88.8W Mon afternoon. Twenty-Five will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.5N 91.0W Tue afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades are expected over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Winds and seas will subside Mon and Tue across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N73W to Miami Florida. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm on either side of this front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the SE of this boundary, with light to gentle winds to the NW. A reinforcing cold front is moving SE from near 31N78W to near Daytona Beach Florida. No significant precipitation is noted with the reinforcing front. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate into Sat morning. The reinforcing front will stall during this time, then retreat northward as a warm front on Sun. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High north of our area and lower pressure in NW Caribbean associated with Tropical Depression Twenty-Five will support moderate to fresh trades south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to strong north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move over the Atlantic waters east of NE Florida late Sun and dissipate by early Tue. Farther east, 1033 mb high pressure is centered near 41N38W. A weak surface trough is noted along 44W from 25N-31N. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of this trough. Fresh E winds persist near the trough north of 27N, but winds and seas are expected to subside later tonight. Generally moderate trades persist farther south into the tropics between 40W-58W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted off North Africa. $$ KONARIK