000 AXNT20 KNHC 020606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Oct 02 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea, along 83W/84W, from 20N southward. A 1006 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near 16.5N. The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and in the SW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 200 nm of the center. Scattered strong is from 19N to Cuba between 77W and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 75W and 79W, from northern sections of Colombia to Jamaica and Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is about 90 nm to the WNW of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. This same precipitation is to the ESE of the stationary front that runs from the southern tip of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Satellite images indicate that precipitation pattern is becoming better organized, slowly. A NOAA buoy, to the northeast of the center, has reported winds to near tropical storm force during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or Saturday, but only if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves inland in the Yucatan Peninsula, or inland in northern Central America. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, in sections of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba, during the next several days. Everyone who lives in those areas, and anyone who has interests in those areas, should monitor the progress of this weather situation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following webpage, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/012335_MIATW OAT.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation is possibly more closely related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 15N southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela, and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela. Scattered strong also is from 180 nm to 280 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the wave from 15N to 18N. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W, to 10N26W, and 09N33W, and from 05N to 07N between 36W and 57W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, in clusters, is from 17N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is passing through the NW Bahamas, to south Florida near 26N80W, to the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is about 120 nm to the ESE of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest of the stationary front. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near the coast of Texas near 28N96W. The current SW Florida-to-central Yucatan Peninsula stationary front will dissipate slowly, by early tomorrow morning. A reinforcing cold front will move through the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday, eventually stalling and dissipating across S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday. A western Caribbean Sea well-defined tropical wave is expected to develop into a tropical depression by early next week, but only if the system remains in the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea or in the S Gulf of Mexico. It is likely for this situation to support strong to near gale-force winds and building seas, in the south central and SW Gulf of Mexico, from late Friday to early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea, along 83W/84W, from 20N southward. A 1006 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near 16.5N. The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or Saturday, but only if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves inland in the Yucatan Peninsula, or inland in northern Central America. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, in sections of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba, during the next several days. Everyone who lives in those areas, and anyone who has interests in those areas, should monitor the progress of this weather situation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following webpage, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/012335_MIATW OAT.shtml, for more details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 15N southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela, and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela. Scattered strong also is from 180 nm to 280 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the wave from 15N to 18N. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 70W in Venezuela beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, and 76W in Colombia. The current W Caribbean Sea well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form by early next week, but only if the system remains in the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea or in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that SE to S winds in the NW Caribbean Sea may reach strong to near-gale force, between Friday night and Saturday night, if the system ends up developing. This pattern also will support fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean Sea, between the low pressure and the Bermuda High that is in the central Atlantic Ocean, through Sunday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N74W, to the NW Bahamas, to 26N80W in south Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, covers the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm to the southeast of the front. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 34W and 54W. A surface trough is along 22N38W to 35N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the trough, and within 320 nm to the west of the trough, from 25N to 33N. A second surface trough is along 50W, from 26N to 33N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from 25N northward between 45W and 66W. The current 31N75W-to-SE Florida stationary front will dissipate gradually, through Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida late on Friday, before also stalling from near 31N79W to central Florida by Saturday afternoon, and then retreating northward as a warm front on Sunday. The Bermuda High, that is to the north of our area and lower pressure that is in the NW Caribbean Sea, will support moderate to fresh trade winds to the south of 20N, occasionally pulsing to strong north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sunday night. A third weak front will move across the Atlantic Ocean waters to the east of NE Florida on Monday, and dissipate by early Tuesday. $$ mt