000 AXNT20 KNHC 011802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...Special Features A tropical wave along 81W, from 19N south through Panama and into the eastern Pacific is moving west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-20N between 77W-84W and near the coast of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the NW Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west- northwestward. There is potential for a tropical depression to develop over the next five days. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development with high chance in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was repositioned to 31W, from 15N southward due to the recent ASCAT pass which clearly shows the wave axis to the east. The wave is moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the tropical wave from 08N to 18N between 54W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 12N16W to 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N20W to 10N27W, to 10N29W, and resumes west of the tropical wave from 08N36W to 11N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 13N between 15W and 26W along the monsoon trough near Africa. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and 260 nm north of the ITCZ from 10N-15N between 51W-54W. Other areas of convection are described above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the northwest part of the Yucatan peninsula near Merida, then farther to the southwest over the extreme eastern Bay of Campeche to Ciudad del Carmen. Clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are active along the front to the north of the Yucatan peninsula. Recent scatterometer passes indicated northerly winds are 20 to 25 kt over the southern Bay of Campeche and in some areas within 180 nm north of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft over the southwest Gulf. Farther north, 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted across much of the northern and western sections of the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. For the forecast, the stationary front from SW Florida to E Bay of Campeche will slowly dissipate by early Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move through the NE Gulf Fri, eventually stalling and dissipating across S Florida and SE Gulf by late Sat. Meanwhile, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of a tropical wave over the W Caribbean, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico on the weekend. This will likely support strong to near gale-force winds and building seas over the mainly the south-central Gulf from late Fri to early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over much of the eastern and central Caribbean between the high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure related to the tropical wave in the western Caribbean described in the section above. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are also noted across the central Caribbean, where the E trade winds converge with SE winds closer to the axis of the tropical wave. Observations from Leeward Islands show episodes of fresh to strong winds in fast- moving rain squalls. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of the tropical wave over the W Caribbean, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico, possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. If the system does develop, then SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean could reach strong to near-gale between Friday night and Saturday night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean between the low pressure and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few areas of thunderstorms are active along a stationary front reaching from 32N73W to near Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, then continues across South Florida. Deep layer moisture remains fairly high east of the frontal boundary, and converging SE flow is supporting other areas of thunderstorms mainly north of 22N SE of the front to 71W. An upper trough is supporting a cluster of thunderstorms farther east near 27N60W. The main synoptic feature over the Atlantic is a 1033 mb high pressure area centered well to the north near 40N39W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated a surface trough embedded in the ridge just to the south of the high pressure from 26N36W to 32N41W. This is supporting an area of scattered moderate convection east of the trough, and moderate to fresh winds and 8 ft seas from 29N to 34N between 33W and 43W. Another area of fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 9 ft is just east of the Leeward and Windward Islands associated with the tropical wave in that area. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas characterize the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. The stationary front extending from 31N76W to SE Florida will gradually dissipate through Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri, before also stalling from near 31N78W to central Florida by Sat afternoon and dissipating through Sun. Meanwhile the Bermuda High north of our area and lower pressure in the northwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trades winds south of 20N, occasionally pulsing to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours through Sunday night. On the extended outlook, a third weak front will move south and stall from 31N72W to Central Florida by Mon night. & Torres