000 AXNT20 KNHC 011003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 15N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave axis along the ITCZ from 07N to 09N between 34W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 17N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the tropical wave from 10N to 13N between 52W and 57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N southward through western Panama and into the eastern Pacific, moving west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 12N to 17N between 80W and 83W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. There is a high chance a tropical depression will form over the next five days. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Gambia near 13N17W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 10N30W, to 10N29W, and from 07N35W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 16W and 21W. Other areas of convection are described above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the northwest part of the Yucatan peninsula near Merida, then farther to the southwest over the extreme eastern Bay of Campeche to Ciudad del Carmen. Clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are active along the front to the north of the Yucatan peninsula. Recent scatterometer passes indicated northerly winds are 20 to 25 kt over the southern Bay of Campeche and in some areas within 120 nm north of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft over the southwest Gulf. Farther north, 1020 mb high pressure is centered south of Lake Charles Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted across much of the northern and western sections of the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No other shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. For the forecast, the stationary front will slowly dissipate tonight and early Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move through the northeast Gulf Fri, eventually stalling across South Florida and the southeast Gulf through late Sat. Meanwhile, developing low pressure over the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula will support strong to near gale force winds and building seas over the mainly the south central Gulf from late Fri to early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over much of the eastern and central Caribbean this morning between high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure related to the tropical wave in the western Caribbean described in the section above. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are also noted across the central Caribbean, where the E trade winds converge with SE winds closer to the axis of the tropical wave. Observations from Leeward Islands show brief episodes of fresh to strong winds in fast-moving rain squalls. Showers and thunderstorms may increase over the Windward Islands and adjacent Caribbean waters later today as the tropical wave near 57W moves into the area accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and seas may increase over the northwest Caribbean through Sat depending on the development and track of the low pressure in that area. This may tighten the pressure gradient enough to support fresh to strong trade winds south of Hispaniola by late Fri. Otherwise, little change is expected through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few areas of thunderstorms are active along a stationary front reaching from 32N73W to near Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, then continues across South Florida. Deep layer moisture remains fairly high east of the frontal boundary, and converging SE flow is supporting other areas of thunderstorms mainly north of 27N east of the front to 65W. An upper trough is supporting a cluster of thunderstorms farther east near 29N60W. The main synoptic feature over the Atlantic is a 1034 mb high pressure area centered well to the north near 41N40W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated a surface trough embedded in the ridge just to the south of the high pressure. This is supporting an area of fresh to strong winds and 8 ft seas from 30N to 32N between 35W and 40W. Another area of fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 9 ft is just east of the Leeward and Windward Islands associated with the tropical wave in that area. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas characterize the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Fri. A reinforcing cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri and early Sat, before also stalling from near 31N75W to South Florida by late Sat and dissipating through Sun. Meanwhile the high pressure over the central Atlantic and the lower pressure in the northwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trades winds south of 20N, occasionally pulsing to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours. Looking ahead, a third weak front will move south and stall from 31N72W to Central Florida by Mon night. $$ Christensen