000 AXNT20 KNHC 010605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation is possibly more closely related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 10N to 17N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from the ITCZ to 16N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the 71W eastward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so in the northwestern corner of Caribbean Sea, or in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of the wave, as the tropical wave moves slowly west-northwestward. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the weekend, as the system meanders. Residents and interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 5 days, is medium. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W, to 09N25W, to 10N29W, and from 07N34W to 09N45W, to 09N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, in clusters, is within 360 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 250 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, from 38W eastward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, generally, is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is passing through the NW Bahamas, to south Florida, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm to the north of the stationary front. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 120 nm to the south of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest of the stationary front. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N95W. A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 feet in the southern Bay of Campeche, west of the front, will subside overnight. Moderate to fresh winds in the south central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico will prevail thereafter, as an area of low pressure develops in the far NW Caribbean Sea. It is possible that these winds may reach near gale-force speeds, from Thursday night through Monday, along with building seas, with strong winds spreading into the north central Gulf of Mexico by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so in the northwestern corner of Caribbean Sea, or in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of the wave, as the tropical wave moves slowly west-northwestward. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the weekend, as the system meanders. Residents and interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 5 days, is medium. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the 71W eastward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/13N, from 72W in northernmost part of Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Any precipitation is close to the 80W tropical wave also. Low pressure is expected to form along a tropical wave, that is moving through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the weekend. This pattern may support fresh to strong winds in parts of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, between the low pressure and central Atlantic Ocean high pressure. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N73W to 31N75W. The front becomes stationary at 31N75W, and it continues to the NW Bahamas, and to south Florida. Precipitation: widely scattred to scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, covers the Atlantic Ocean within 360 nm to the east of the front. The current stationary front will dissipate gradually, through late Thursday. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will persist S of 20N, between high pressure near Bermuda and developing low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. $$ mt