000 AXNT20 KNHC 301732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...Special Features A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently located along 79W, moving west at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-19N between 74W-83W. This wave will continue moving westward and interact with the stationary front approaching the area. The wave will be accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds. This feature is expected to become part of a broad low-pressure area over the western Caribbean within the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development with a medium chance in the next 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 00N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-14N between 23W-33W. A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 08N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of the wave's axis from 08N-15N between 48W-56W. A tropical wave axis is along 67W from 03N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the waves axis from 11N-20N between 67W-63W. No significant convection is noted south of 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N20W to 07N28W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N47W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N- 13n and east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the ITCZ from 08N-15N between 43W-48W. Gulf of Mexico... A cold front extending from 30N76W to 23N86W to 18N92W continues to produce scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the boundary. Drier air is moving into the northwest Gulf behind the cold front as surface ridging builds across the area. The most recent scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds NW of the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail SE of the front. The cold front will support strong to near gale force winds in the SW basin and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. The front will move E of the basin by this evening. A second front will enter the northern Gulf on Sat. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh northeast winds over most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may reach strong speeds on Sat along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving over the west Caribbean, while another one is moving across Hispaniola. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Across the southwest Caribbean, the extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N between 75W-82W with scattered to numerous moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trade winds across most of the basin except east of 76W, where fresh to strong winds are noted. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat, and will decrease to gentle to moderate for the remaining period. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 41N43W. A surface trough is seen in the latest ASCAT pass from 30N45W to 25N38W and a second trough further east extending south from a low pressure near 32N31W to 25N29W. Moderate to fresh winds ahead and behind a cold front that extends from 30N76W to 26N80W will prevail to the E of the Bahamas through Thu as the front dissipates. A pair of tropical waves will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Thu through Sun and will support moderate to fresh winds over the SE offshore waters, increasing to strong N of Hispaniola at night. $ Torres