000 AXNT20 KNHC 290519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front has entered the Gulf waters and now extends from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the front. The front will reach the SE Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida by Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are forecast in the western half of the basin, with gale force winds expected west of 95W on Tue. Seas are forecast to build to 18 or 19 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue afternoon and evening. A secondary front will drop southward to the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front. The pressure gradient between the front and broad low pressure that is expected to form over the western Caribbean by the end of the week is expected to freshen the northeast winds over most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. These winds may reach strong speeds on Sat and Sat night along with building seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 40W from 02N-15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N between 39W-47W. A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 03N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-18N between 54W-63W. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is currently located along 71W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia and W Venezuela from 07N-12N between 71W-75W. This wave will continue moving westward across the basin through the period accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds along with building seas. This feature is expected to become part of a broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean in a few days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near 08N42W to 06N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N-22N between 63W-69W. Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is forecast to produce gale-force winds over the SW Gulf. Refer to the Special Features section for more details. A ridge from the Atlantic extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf. The most recent scatterometer data depict light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate southerly winds ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Presently clusters of scattered moderate convection are inland over Honduras, Nicaragua, and N Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave, currently located along 71W, will continue moving westward across the basin through the period accompanied by active weather and enhanced winds along with building seas. This feature is expected to become part of a broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlantic. A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 40N45W. The tail end of a cold front is just N of the area from 37N30W to 33N43W to 33N60W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the area. The high pressure will begin retreat eastward through Wed in response to a cold front that will be moving across the southeastern U.S. This front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front will weaken through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front. $$ Formosa