000 AXNT20 KNHC 281012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue morning. These conditions are expected to dissipate by early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 33W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 33W- 39W. A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 48W- 56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 65W from 03N- 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N-20N between 60W-70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 08N30W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 11N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 12N54W to 11N62W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted along the boundary and east of 29W. Gulf of Mexico... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf. A mid-level trough is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to southern Texas. East of this trough, mid-level SW winds are transporting moist air from the Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, scattered moderate convection is noted across the south-central portion of the basin along 23N and 90W. To the southwest, a surface trough extends along 91W and south of 21N enhancing winds/convection over the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula. Recent ASCAT data depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the of the basin, with gale force winds west of 95W on Tue. A secondary front will drop southward to the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front. The pressure gradient between the front and a tropical wave that will approach the western Caribbean is expected to freshen the northeast winds over most of the southeastern Gulf on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving over the E Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N between 77W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers S of 11N. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also noted near the Lesser Antilles east of the tropical wave axis. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. The tropical wave will continue moving west across the basin enhancing convection/winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is N of the Bahamas north of 27N-30N between 75W-80W. A surface trough extends from 30N71W to 26N69W. Another trough extends from 30N59W to 26N58W. Neither of these troughs have significant convection at this time. Further E, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N44W to 15N45W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Over the W Atlantic, a cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ ERA