000 AXNT20 KNHC 280536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale force northerly winds are currently occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco from 30N-31.5N, between 10W-11.5W in the marine zone Agadir, according to a set of ASCAT passes. A gale warning is currently posted there from Meteo France. The gale warning will continue in Agadir until Monday at 28/0900 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 33W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-10N between 31W-37W. A tropical wave axis is along 51W/52W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 49W-55W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 64W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 280 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 08N30W to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 11N50W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 11N52W to 11N62W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 11N-15N between 13W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 55W-59W. Gulf of Mexico... A mid-level trough oriented ENE-WSW is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to deep southern Texas. East of this trough, mid- level SW winds are transporting moist air from the Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf of Mexico, E of 89W to include the Florida peninsula. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is also producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 20N-23N between 89W-92W. Recent ASCAT data depicts gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the of the basin, with gale force winds west of 95W on Tue. A secondary front will drop southward to the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front. The pressure gradient between the front and a tropical wave that will approach the western Caribbean is expected to freshen the northeast winds over most of the southeastern Gulf on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N between 77W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers S of 13N. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also moving through the Lesser Antilles east of the wave axis that is along 64W. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave currently located along 64W...will continue moving west across the basin enhancing convection/winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is N of the Bahamas from 26N-30N between 78W-81W. A 1013 mb surface low is NE of the Bahamas near 28N70W. A surface trough extends from 32N72W to the low to 27N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Further E, another surface trough is from 31N58W to 26N58W with isolated showers within 90 nm of the trough axis. In the tropics, a surface trough extends from 21N43W to 14N44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the axis. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-30N between 27W-36W due to an upper-level low that is centered near 26N35W. Strong N-NE winds are noted in the E Atlantic from 19N-29N, east of 26W, and from 29N-32N, east of 19W, with gale force winds near the coast of Morocco. Over the W Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over northeast Bahamas. A cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front. $$ Formosa