000 AXNT20 KNHC 272336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale force northerly winds are currently occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco from 30N-31.5N, between 10W-11.5W in the marine zone Agadir, according to a set of ASCAT passes from around 27/1000 UTC. A gale warning is currently posted there from Meteo France. The gale warning will continue in Agadir until Monday at 28/0900 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 31W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm east and 210 nm west of the wave axis from 04N-10N. A tropical wave axis is along 50W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 09N-14N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 300 nm east of the wave axis from the Anegada Passage at 17.5N to inland portions of Venezuela, an gradually weakening across the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 10N27W to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 10.5N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 10.5N52W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough from the west coast of Africa to 26N, and from 04N-11N between 35W and 44W. A mid-level trough oriented ENE-WSW is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to deep southern Texas. East of this trough, mid- level SW winds are transporting moist air from the Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm SE of a line from Pensacola, Florida to 24N93W. Scattered moderate to strong afternoon convection is also seen across the Florida Peninsula north of Lake Okeechobee, and along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent ASCAT data depicts gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida Wed evening. Gale force winds are expected over portions of the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night. See Special Features section above for details on the gale warning. Outside the gale area, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin behind the front. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is exiting the Lesser Antilles and moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between 77W-81W, while scattered showers are noted elsewhere south of 15N between 80W and the coast of Nicaragua. A small upper-level trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 17N and east of 65W, across the Virgin Islands and eastern coastal waters of Puerto Rico and extends NE into the adjacent Atlantic. Elsewhere scattered strong afternoon thunderstorms over Cuba west of 79W have begun to drift SSW and over the adjacent coastal waters. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south- central Caribbean north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also moving through the Lesser Antilles east of the wave axis that is along 63W. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong by Wed. Mainly moderate winds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Mon evening, then across the central Caribbean Tue through early Wed and across the western Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Scattered showers and tstorms will follow along and behind the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western Atlantic, a 1014 mb surface low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 28N70W. A surface trough extends from 30N72W to the low to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N between 64W-69W. To the east, another surface trough is from 31N56W to 25N56W with isolated showers. A stationary front is from 32N48W to 30N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 30N- 32N between 51.5W-54W. A surface trough extends from 21N40W to 13N42W with scattered showers near the trough. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-30N between 27W- 36W due to an upper- level low that is centered near 26N35W. Strong N-NE winds are noted in the E Atlantic from 19N-29N, east of 26W, and from 29N- 32N, east of 19W, with gale force winds near the coast of Morocco. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected east of the low and trough that area NE of Bahamas this evening and tonight, while gentle to moderate SE winds prevail between the trough and Florida. A cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area on Wed. The cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu. Scattered showers and tstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ Stripling