000 AXNT20 KNHC 271654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale force northerly winds are currently occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco from 30N-31.5N, between 10W-11.5W in the marine zone Agadir, according to a set of ASCAT passes from around 27/1000 UTC. A gale warning is currently posted there from Meteo France. The gale warning will continue in Agadir until Monday at 28/0900 UTC. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon afternoon, then reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale area by Tue morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 29W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis from 05N-10N. A tropical wave axis is along 49W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are along and within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 08.5N-13N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is along 62/63W from 03N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 08N-16.5N, and is currently affecting the Windward Islands. Convection over the northern Leeward Islands north of 16.5N is related to a nearby upper-level trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 16N23W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 10N41W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N51W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 22W and the west coast of Africa. Scattered showers are within 300 nm S of the ITCZ between 35W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough oriented NE-SW is located over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. East of this trough, mid-level SW winds are transporting moist air from the Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, a cluster of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 25N-28.5N between 87W-90W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere within the area enclosed by the points 18.5N93W to 28N82W to 31N82W to 31N87W to 21N97.5W to 18.5N93W. Recent ASCAT data depicts gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida Wed evening. Gale force winds are expected over portions of the west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night. See Special Features section above for details on the gale warning. Outside the gale area, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin behind the front. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between 75W-82W. Scattered showers are noted across the central Caribbean. A small upper-level trough is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection north of 17N and east of 64W, including the northernmost Leeward Islands. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also moving through the Lesser Antilles east of the wave axis that is along 62/63W. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong speeds by Wed. Mainly winds at moderate speeds will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Mon evening, then across the central Caribbean Tue through early Wed and across the western Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Scattered showers and tstorms will follow in behind the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Over the western Atlantic, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near 28N69W. A surface trough extends from 30N70W to the low to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N-32N between 64W-69W. To the east, another surface trough is from 31N55W to 23N54W with isolated showers. A stationary front is from 32N48W to 30N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 30N-32N between 51.5W-54W. A surface trough extends from 21N40W to 13N42W with scattered showers near the trough. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-30N between 27W-36W due to an upper-level low that is centered near 26N35W. Strong N-NE winds are noted in the E Atlantic from 19N-29N, east of 26W, and from 29N-32N, east of 19W, with gale force winds near the coast of Morocco. Moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast of the Bahamas today. A cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area on Wed. The cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu. Scattered showers and tstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ Hagen