000 AXNT20 KNHC 271039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis along 27W from 02N-19N, is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 07N between 25W- 30W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 01N-16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 08N-16N between 43W-50W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N29W to 09N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 30W-38W and between 51W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin. A surface trough is analyzed over the southwest Gulf from 22N91W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 25N between 88W-95W. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate winds across the basin. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon, then move SE across the Gulf waters through the week. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with gale force winds possible over the southwestern Gulf on Tue-Wed. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Scattered showers are noted across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia and over the Bay of Honduras, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean today, becoming fresh to strong by mid-week. Moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are analyzed over the Atlantic. Please see the section above for details. Over the western Atlantic, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near 27N69W. A surface trough extends from 29N69W to the low to 25N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough/low. To the east, another surface trough is from 30N54W to 24N53W with scattered showers. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 17N40W with trough extending from 19N39W to the low to 14N41W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered just NE of the Azores. This high, combined with lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in strong N-NE winds near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast of the Bahamas today. A cold front will move over the northwest part of the area by mid-week, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N75W to South Florida by Wed night and from 31N73W to near western Cuba by late Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ ERA