000 AXNT20 KNHC 270558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 26W S of 18N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 24W-30W. A tropical wave is along 47W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 43W-49W. A tropical wave is along 61W S of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Moisture associated with this wave is forecast to affect the Windward Islands tonight into Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 08N20W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 10N35W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N49W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 06N-12N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-08N between 34W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 27/0300 UTC, a 1017 mb high is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf of Mexico, S Florida, and the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the western Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 17N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-23N between 89W-92W. Another trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 20N93W to 16N93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 17N-19N between 93W-95W. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf late Mon afternoon. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with gale force winds possible west of the front over some areas of the western Gulf from Mon night through Tue night. High pressure behind the front will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Windward islands. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Cuba between 76W-85W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean through early Sun, becoming fresh to strong by Wed. Moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. Please see above. Over the western Atlantic, a surface through extending from 28N69W to 23N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Another trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 23N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 51W-54W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the tropical Atlantic near 17N38W. A surface trough extends from 19N37W to the low to 12N39W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A large upper-level low centered near 26N35W is part of a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) with axis from 31N32W to 26N35W to 17N43W to near Trinidad and Tobago Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted S of 22N between 55W-60W. High pressure of 1030 mb located just NE of the Azores combined with lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in strong N-NE winds near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Moderate to fresh winds are expected northeast of the Bahamas this weekend as a surface trough moves across the western Atlantic. A cold front will move over the western Atlantic by mid-week, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N75W to South Florida by Wed night and from 31N73W to near western Cuba by late Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. $$ Formosa