000 AXNT20 KNHC 261010 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N between 32W and 41W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 13N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 57W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 15N17W to 12N41W. The ITCZ is from 12N44W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the coast of Africa from 07N to 15N. GULF OF MEXICO... A low centered over the Carolinas extends a trough southwestward into northern Florida. The northern Gulf is mostly devoid of shower activity north of 25N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N to 24N between 90W and 95W. Scatterometer data, ship and buoy observations show light to gentle wind speeds over the basin. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with gale force winds possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Mon night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest TPW imagery shows high moisture content covers the NW Caribbean west of a line from central Cuba to northern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba to Belize. Isolated showers prevail elsewhere across the basin. Scatterometer data and ship obs show moderate trade winds in the central Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean through early Sun, becoming fresh to strong by Wed. Moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 32N48W to 25N58W, and a surface trough is evident from satellite and scatterometer data from 27N61W southward to near Puerto Rico. A weak cyclonic circulation associated with the trough is centered near 26N65W. Active convection that moved eastward off the Florida peninsula has mostly dissipated, but a few showers remain from 23N to 28N between 76W and 79W in the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a large upper-level low centered near 26N34W is supporting scattered showers over a large area between 24W and 35W, north of 15N. Moderate to fresh winds are expected NE of the Bahamas this weekend as the surface trough moves west across the western Atlantic. A cold front will move east of Florida on Wed. $$ Mundell