000 AXNT20 KNHC 260605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 13N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation. A tropical wave is along 93W, from 18N southward, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is from 15N to 23N between 88W and 95W. The precipitation covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and parts of Guatemala and in Mexico between Guatemala and the 93W tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, 08N30W, 12N34W, and 12N44W. The ITCZ is along 12N44W, to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered strong is in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Africa from 07N to 14N between 11W and 18W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is along 93W, from 18N southward, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is from 15N to 23N between 88W and 95W. The precipitation covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and parts of Guatemala and in Mexico between Guatemala and the 93W tropical wave. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 25N southward from 92W eastward. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday evening. Strong northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin, with gale force winds possible to the west of the front along the coast of Mexico on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough from NW Venezuela to the Mona Passage, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 75W eastward. The monsoon trough is along 11N/13N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday, becoming fresh to strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere across most of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is between 40W and 60W, from 25N northward, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough. A dissipating stationary front is along 32N48W to 25N58W. A surface trough curves northeastward, from just to the east of Puerto Rico to 26N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the west of the trough from 24N to 27N. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is from 16N northward between 50W and the surface trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is to the west of the dissipating stationary front. The anticyclonic wind flow is related to the Yucatan Channel anticyclonic circulation center. An upper level trough extends from the waters that are between the Canary Islands and the Azores, to Trinidad and NE Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 600 nm on either side of trough.Inidividual cyclonic circulation centers are in the overall area of broad cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind flow. Moderate to fresh winds are expected to the NE of the Bahamas this weekend, as a surface trough moves westward, to the north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front will move to the east of Florida on Wednesday. $$ mt