000 AXNT20 KNHC 251711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 34W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm of the wave north of 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 11N16W to 11N34W. The ITCZ continues west of the wave is from 09N42W to 07N50W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 200 nm of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches from NW Florida to 26N90W. The basin is mostly devoid of shower activity except south of 22N in the Bay of Campeche BETWEEN 91W-95W. Moderate southerly winds are ahead of the front in the NE Gulf, and moderate NW winds in the northern Gulf behind the front. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. Light winds continue in the southeast and central Gulf. A stationary front extending from NW Florida to 26N90W is expected to weaken and dissipate in the NE Gulf today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will diminish this morning as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Gale force winds are possible west of the front near Veracruz on Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends across the Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to Cuba, remnants of an Atlantic cold front. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the western Caribbean from 13N to 09N between 74W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean through Tue, becoming fresh to strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere across the area, except moderate to fresh ESE winds in the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front stretches across the Atlantic from 30N50W to 25N57W, becoming a surface trough from 25N57W to 19N76W, across the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Scattered showers are noted about 80 nm south of the front. A 1024 mb high pressure centered near 34N62W, with a ridge across the northern waters between the stationary front and southeast U.S. coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Florida Straits north across the northern Bahamas to 31N and west of 75W-79W. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with few showers except associated with tropical waves or the convergence zone. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are expected N of 22N through Sat night as a surface trough moves westward north of the Greater Antilles this weekend before dissipating on Mon. Moderate return flow will prevail afterwards E of the Bahamas through Tue night. $$ MTorres