000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045 RRA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N southward, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 12N between 34W and 40W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 13N southward, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm of the wave axis from 09N to 11N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 
11N15W to 10N20W to 09N30W to 09N37W. The ITCZ is from 08N40W to 
06N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 
16N between 11W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from NW Florida to 25N90W. The basin is 
mostly devoid of shower activity except south of 22N in the Bay 
of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the 
front in the NE Gulf, and moderate NW winds in the northern Gulf 
behind the front. Light winds continue in the Bay of Campeche.

The cold front is expected to weaken and dissipate in the NE 
Gulf today. Southerly winds ahead of the front will diminish 
this morning as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move 
into the NW Gulf Mon evening. Gale force winds are possible west 
of the front near Veracruz on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to 
Cuba, remnants of an Atlantic cold front. The eastern extension 
of a monsoon trough in the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 10N84W to 
09N78W to 10N73W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted in the western Caribbean from 15N to 18N between 81W 
and 89W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the 
coast of Colombia, within 90 nm of 12N76W. Isolated showers 
elsewhere across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean through Tue, becoming fresh to strong near the coast 
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds expected elsewhere across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the Atlantic from 32N50W to 
22N63W, becoming a surface trough from 22N63W to 19N70W, across 
the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. 1023 mb high pressure is 
centered near 33N63W, with a ridge across the northern waters 
between the stationary front and southeast U.S. coast. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 75 nm ahead of the stationary 
front, with isolated showers elsewhere, mainly near the front. 
High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with few showers 
except associated with tropical waves or the convergence zone. 

High pressure building north of the area will support gentle to 
moderate winds across the region through tonight. A surface 
trough will move westward north of the Greater Antilles this 
weekend, then weaken early next week. 

$$
Mundell