000 AXNT20 KNHC 242350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 08N-13N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 08N-11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N25W. The ITCZ begins near 10N36W to 06N47W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N49W to 04N51W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 04N-15N between 23W-31W. Scattered showers are along and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from Pensacola Florida to 24N94W. A pre- frontal trough is from 28N87W to 25N88W to 20N93W. Scattered showers are along the trough from 21N-23N. In the NE Gulf, ahead of the cold front, scattered showers and isolated tstorms along with fresh S winds are noted. Moderate NW winds are in the NW Gulf behind the front. Light winds continue in the Bay of Campeche. The cold front extending from Pensacola Florida to 24N94W will dissipate over the NE Gulf waters just west of the Florida Big Bend by Fri. Fresh to locally strong SSE winds ahead of the front will diminish tonight as the front gradually weakens. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterwards through Mon. Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to move off the coast of Texas and Alabama by Mon evening with strong to near gale force N winds behind it. Gale force winds are possible for the region of Veracruz Tue and Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends across the NW Caribbean from Cuba near 23N82W to near Tulum on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87.5W. Scattered moderate convection stretches from western Cuba to the Cayman Islands, while the moderate convection is only isolated closer to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A trough off the eastern Puerto Rico coast is giving way to thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed across the Lesser Antilles. The monsoon trough is along 11N between 74W and the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. A 1010 mb low is along the monsoon trough near 11N81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 14N between 74W-84W. Additional scattered moderate convection is over Jamaica and adjacent waters. Fresh trades stretch across the south-central Caribbean with gentle trades elsewhere. Long period northerly swell across the Caribbean passages associated with a frontal system currently entering the central Atlantic waters will gradually subside through this evening. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean through the entire period, increasing to strong near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela over the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds will increase to moderate to fresh Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches across the Atlantic from 32N53W to 28N57W and continues SW as a stationary front to a 1014 mb low near 24N62W. A cold front extends SW from that low to 20N67W to 20N73W to 22N77W. A trough stretches from near 17N64W to 22N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N-25N between 57W-61W, with similar convection over Hispaniola and Cuba. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm south and east of the front. A trough continues to linger east of the Lesser Antilles from 22N52W to 17N59W with isolated showers near the trough. Another trough stretches from 33N49W to 29N46W with isolated thunderstorms along it. Moderate east winds are north of the front. A 1020 mb high is near 32N67W, leading to gentle winds north of 28N between 65W-77W. In the NE Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 32N16W to 29N20W with little significant convection or wind in the area. Ridging prevails elsewhere across most of the east Atlantic. Long period N swell E of the Bahamas associated with a frontal system just to the NE of Puerto Rico will gradually subside through this evening. Surface high pressure building N of the area will support gentle to moderate return flow across the area through Fri evening. The remnants of the front will move into the waters N of 22N between 65W-70W on Fri night, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters north of 25N east of 73W through Sat night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate return flow will dominate the area through Tuesday. $$ Hagen