000 AXNT20 KNHC 240603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA, at 24/0300 UTC, is inland in Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W. This position is about 70 km to the E of Alexandria in Louisiana. BETA is moving toward the NE, or 055 degrees, 12 miles per hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 miles per hour. The hazards to the public and property will be: rainfall, flooding, and possible tornadoes. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 51.0N 57.3W. TEDDY is moving toward the NNE, or 030 degrees, 28 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/31W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 15N between 27W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/42W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 16N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, and 06N33W. The ITCZ continues from 06N33W, to 06N40W, and to 05N51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 10N to 14N between 14W and 18W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 12N between 18W and 27W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 12N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BETA, at 24/0300 UTC, is inland in Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W. This position is about 70 km to the E of Alexandria in Louisiana. BETA is moving toward the NE, or 055 degrees, 12 miles per hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 miles per hour. The hazards to the public and property will be: rainfall, flooding, and possible tornadoes. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 86W westward. The 1005 mb remnant low pressure center of BETA is in east central Louisiana, near 31.1N 91.8W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 26N94W in the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front extends eastward from the 1005 mb low pressure center, toward the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation inland: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the dissipating stationary front. Other precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the east of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in NW Cuba. Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea from 73W westward, and the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. Remnants of an already dissipated stationary front will move northward, as a surface trough, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, during the next couple of days. It is possible that a weak low pressure center may develop along the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 22N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, cutting across Cuba, to 25N86W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N to the stationary front between 60W and Hispaniola. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally strong is in the interior and coastal waters areas of Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward from 70W westward. The upper level wind flow that is in the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward is moving away from an upper level ridge, and toward an inverted trough. The trough is in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan Peninsula toward northern sections of Colombia. Northerly swell, previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and an early season cold front in the western Atlantic Ocean, will continue through Thursday. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through the forecast period, with the exception of fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 32N56W to 27N60W and 21N70W, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm to the SE and ESE of the stationary front, from 74W in the Caribbean Sea, northeastward to 32N. A surface trough curves from 21N50W to 17N54W to 15N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N49W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 26N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N northward between 43W and the precipitation that is associated with the stationary front. Swell, previously generated by Hurricane Teddy and a cold front that moved through the Atlantic Ocean at the start of the week, will continue to subside gradually in the forecast area, into Thursday night. Generally gentle to moderate easterly winds can be expected into the weekend. $$ mt