000 AXNT20 KNHC 222344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 29.8N 96.3W at 22/2100 UTC, or 30 nm N of Port O'Connor, Texas, moving ENE at 4 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm from the center in the N semicircle. Beta is expected to continue moving east-northeast through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday, and Beta is expected to become a remnant low pressure system by late Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Hurricane Teddy is centered near 41.1N 64.2W at 22/2100 UTC, or 213 nm S of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving N at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently 52 ft with 12 ft seas within 660 nm in the NE quadrant, 780 nm in the SE quadrant, 960 nm in the SW quadrant, and 360 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection extends 218 nm N of the center. Teddy will make a north-northeast turn by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Although some weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 34.8N 21.2W at 22/2100 UTC, or 339 nm ESE of the Azores, moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the center. An eastward to east- northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is located along 22W S of 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 22W- 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 34W S of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal/Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 06N27W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Beta. A stationary front stretches across the Gulf from NW Cuba near 23N83W to the southeast Texas coast near 30N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 70 nm of the front between 84W-91W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf with fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf. Seas 4 to 8 ft are noted with upwards of 9 ft in the north-central Gulf. Impacts from Beta, currently inland over Texas, will remain confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A stationary front extending from the north-central Gulf to western Cuba will move little for the next day or so, then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Development of this system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is very unlikely late this week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are E of front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends north of the Caribbean waters across Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the northwest and north-central Caribbean N of 18N between 70W-86W. The monsoon trough extends off the Panama coast to a 1008 mb low near 10N77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough, S of 14N between 75W-83W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin. Seas 1 to 3 ft. Swell associated with extremely large Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as well as generated by a stationary front, currently extending along 22N-23N W of 65W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning tonight and continuing through at least Thu night. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through the forecast period, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the Atlantic from 31N58W to 22N67W to the NE Cuban coast near 21N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm along the front. Strong southerly winds are ahead of front N of 28N with fresh southerly winds N of 22N. A surface trough in the central Atlantic is analyzed from 23N44W to 18N46W. Another surface trough well to the east of the Lesser Antilles is analyzed from 15N50W to 13N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between these troughs from 11N to 20N between 44N to 54W. A 1014 mb low is analyzed near 21N27W with no significant convection. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the central Atlantic. Seas up to 7 ft are noted in the central Atlantic with seas 10 to 18 ft in the western Atlantic. Swell generated by extremely large Teddy combined with a stationary front over the SE waters will continue to impact the forecast area through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast into tonight. $$ AReinhart