000 AXNT20 KNHC 220538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beta is centered on the Texas coast near 28.5N 96.4W at 22/0400 UTC or about 5 nm N of Port Oconnor, Texas, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends out to 120 nm from the center in the NE quadrant and 90 nm NW quad. Beta will move northeastward near the Texas coast today and tonight, and it should weaken to a tropical depression by early Wed. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of the NW Gulf Coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Hurricane Teddy is near 35.6N 61.5W at 22/0300 UTC or 255 nm NE of Bermuda moving N at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends outward 270 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Moderate convection also extends well north of a warm front located north of Teddy. Teddy should move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wed then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wed into Thu. Teddy should weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical on Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Paulette has regenerated into a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Paulette is located near 33.9N 25.3W at 22/0300 UTC or about 260 nm SSE of the Azores moving ENE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 105 nm NW quad, and 30 nm S semicircle. Paulette should continue moving ENE through tonight. A much slower E or ESE motion is expected by late Wed and Wed night. Gradual weakening should begin by late today and continue through Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added along the W coast of Africa near 16/17W from 17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 19N29W to 04N31W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 08N28W. The ITCZ is from 06N33W to 05N39W. Isolated showers are near the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Storm Beta centered along the Texas coast. As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 23N80W to 24N85W. The front continues as stationary from 24N85W to 26N89W to 29N93W. Scattered moderate convection is near the front. Strong to near gale east winds cover the eastern and north-central Gulf, to the north of the front, according to a recent ASCAT pass from late Monday evening. Fresh to strong winds will prevail there into tonight. Gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In the far western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N. Tropical Storm Beta will weaken to a tropical depression near 29N95W Wed morning, move inland to near 30.5N 92W Thu morning, and become a remnant low and move over Mississippi Thu evening. Beta will dissipate late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of mid level high pressure supporting dry air subsidence. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the NW Caribbean to the south of Cuba. Similar activity is seen in the SW Caribbean, south of 13N, in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades over the SE and south-central Caribbean, with gentle winds elsewhere. Swell associated with tropical cyclone Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as well as generated by a cold front currently extending along 23N W of 63W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning early Wed and continuing through at least Thu night. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N64W to 25N66W to 23N74W to 24N84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the front west of 66W. Strong to near gale NE winds cover the western Atlantic to the north of the front, including the Bahamas. Farther east, strong S winds associated with Hurricane Teddy from 29N-31N between 54W-63W are expected to move north of 31N this morning. Seas south of 31N and east of 55W will diminish to below 12 ft later this morning. A weak 1010 mb low near 14N50W, the remnants of Wilfred, is along a NE-SW surface trough that extends from 17N46W to 10N54W. Another surface trough is from 22N40W to 16N41W with strong winds from 19N-22N between 38W-43W. As a result of both troughs, scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover the area bounded by the points 08N46W to 14N50W to 24N37W to 12N38W to 08N46W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also seen from 22N-27N between 42W-51W in association with an upper-level low centered near 23N46W. In the NE Atlantic, strong winds associated with the southern periphery of T.S. Paulette extend as far south as about 30.5N. Hurricane Teddy has moved N of the area to the northeast of Bermuda and will continue to move north away from the area, toward Atlantic Canada, over the next day or two. Strong N to NE winds will continue over the entire west Atlantic this morning in the wake of the west Atlantic cold front due to strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. These winds will diminish to fresh this afternoon. $$ Hagen