000 AXNT20 KNHC 191716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 26.6N 92.6W at 19/1500 UTC, or 265 nm ESE of Corpus Christi, TX and 213 nm, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently 20 ft with 12 ft seas extending 30 nm in the SW quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection extends 300 nm in the eastern semicircle. A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Category 3 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 26.0N 59.0W at 19/1500 UTC, or 487 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently 55 ft with 12 ft seas extending within 480 nm in the N semicircle, 300 nm in the SE quadrant, and 390 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm of the center. Teddy is expected to continue moving NW through tonight. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the island late Sunday and early Monday. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week. Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml or more details. Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 13.4N 38.1W at 19/1500 UTC, or 834 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands and 1350 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft with 12 ft seas within 30 nm of the center except 0 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm in the NW quadrant. Wilfred will continue moving toward the west- northwest for the next few days. Little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday. Wilfred is expected to become a remnant low by Monday night and dissipate on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is centered near 37N31N with a central pressure of 1008 mb. This low is about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little. There is a medium chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hr and 5 days. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N23W. Isolated showers are within 190 nm south of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Beta in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary sinking southward across the eastern Gulf and S Florida has stalled and extends off the coast of Florida near Ft. Myers from 26N82W to 27N87W. No significant convection is associated with this front. A trough extends south of T.S. Beta from 24N92W to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen with this trough from 19N-24N between 89W-97W. Outside of T.S. Beta, gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin with seas 2-5 ft. Tropical Storm Beta will move to 26.9N 93.0W this evening, 27.1N 93.8W Sun morning, 27.5N 94.8W Sun evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 27.8N 95.5W Mon morning, 28.2N 96.2W Mon evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 96.2W Tue morning. Beta will move inland near 29.5N 95.0W by early Wed. A cold front will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing fresh to strong NE winds into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from 17N60W to the Gulf of Venezuela near 12N71W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 50 nm of the trough. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 10N75W to 11N84W with a 1010 mb low along the monsoon trough near 10N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-14N between 75W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted across the southern Lesser Antilles from 11N-14N between 59W-64W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft. Tropical Storm Wilfred will move to 14.2N 40.2W this evening, 15.2N 43.1W Sun morning, 15.9N 45.8W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 16.2N 48.0W Mon morning, become a remnant low and move to 16.3N 49.8W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Long period northeasterly swell from Major Hurricane Teddy, moving away from the area in the Central Atlantic, will continue to impact tropical Atlantic waters through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Wilfred, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette. In the western Atlantic off the coast of northeast Florida, a front extends from 31N78W to Jacksonville, Florida near 30N81W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along this front. Fresh northerly winds are noted behind this front. Another front continues to sink southward from 31N73W to a 1011 mb low near 28N77W. The front stalls from the low to West Palm Beach, Florida near 27N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends southward of the front from 27N77W to 25N82W. Light winds are north of this front with gentle southwesterly winds behind the front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front. Outside of the tropical systems, ridging extends across the rest of the basin. Hurricane Teddy will weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 47.0N 59.8W by early Wed. Swell generated by Teddy will continue to impact the Bahamas this weekend. A strong cold front that moved off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas overnight will move SE and weaken, then stall early next week from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits. Behind the front, near gale force winds NE are anticipated across a broad area of Atlantic waters N of 25N from later today through Mon. Tropical Storm Wilfred in the tropical Atlantic is expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching the area by early next week. $$ AReinhart