000 AXNT20 KNHC 182325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Hurricane Teddy is centered near 23.1N 57.0W at 18/2100 UTC or 450 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located 130 nm in the NE quadrant and scattered moderate convection is located 200 nm in the NW quadrant and the S semicircle. Teddy is expected to continue moving NW for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. These swells spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States of America this weekend. It is likely for the swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 12.5N 34.4W at 18/2100 UTC or 640 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the W semicircle. Wilfred will continue moving WNW for the next few days. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Beta is centered near 24.3N 93.1W at 18/2100 UTC or 290 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered strong convection is within 200 nm in the NE quadrant while scattered thunderstorms prevail within 170 nm in the S semicircle. Beta will continue to move NNE through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Subtropical Storm Alpha is centered near 40.4N 8.4W at 18/2100 UTC or 100 nm NNE of Lisbon Portugal moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 200 nm of the NE quadrant moving across Portugal and portions of NW Spain. Subtropical Storm Alpha will continue moving NE during the next day or so before dissipation. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening over land through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N17W to 15N23W. No significant convective activity is noted at this time with this feature. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the current tropical cyclone activity. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Beta located in the western Gulf. The convection noted across most of the basin is enhanced by the Beta. To the east, a cold front continues to sink southward across the Gulf, extending from 27N83W to 27N89W, then becoming stationary from that point to 25N93W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 27N83W to 25N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough and front. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the eastern half of the basin. Aside from Beta, the cold front over the east Gulf will continue moving SE through the weekend, bringing fresh NE winds to the area into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA.... A 1010 mb surface low is located in the east Caribbean near 14N65W, with a trough extending from 15N71W to the low to 15N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with the low and trough. The EPAC's monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean along 10N-11N between 76W-84W. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed along the trough near 10N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of these features mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across most of the basin, except for moderate trades over the south central Caribbean north of the monsoon trough and near over the Gulf of Honduras. Hurricane Teddy will move northward away from tropical Atlantic waters through the forecast period. Long-period northeasterly swell generated by Teddy are expected to impact most of the central Atlantic through the next few days. T.S. Wilfred has developed in the eastern Atlantic. This system may impact portions of Atlantic waters well east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, T.S. Wilfred, and Subtropical Storm Alpha. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N77W to 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front mainly north of 30N. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N33W to 27N34W. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 20N41W with scattered showers. This low is the remnants of Vicky. Outside of the tropical systems, winds are gentle to moderate. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted off the Western Sahara/Mauritania coast. Hurricane Teddy will continue moving NNW through the forecast period. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. The cold front will continue moving southeast across the west Atlantic tonight, then gradually weaken and become stationary from near Bermuda into southern Florida early next week. Near gale force northeast winds are expected north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next week, along with building seas. $$ ERA