000 AXNT20 KNHC 181748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Category 4 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 22.1N 56.1W at 18/1500 UTC, or 456 nm ENE of the northern Leeward Islands and 769 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently 45 ft with 12 ft seas extending 420 nm in the N semicircle and 300 nm in the S semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located 130 nm in the NE quadrant and scattered moderate convection is located 200 nm in the NW quadrant and the S semicircle. Teddy is expected to continue moving NW for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Large swells that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. These swells spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States of America by the weekend. It is likely for the swells to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Newly formed Tropical Storm Wilfred is centered near 11.9N 32.4W at 18/1500 UTC, or 547 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently less than 8 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 200 nm of the W semicircle. Wilfred will continue moving WNW for the next few days. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered near 23.8N 93.9W at 18/1500 UTC, or 239 nm ENE of Tampico, Mexico and 222 nm SE of the mouth of the Rio Grande, moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently less than 8 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 200 nm in the NE quadrant and scattered thunderstorms are seen 170 nm in the S semicircle. The depression will continue to move NNE through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Newly formed Subtropical Storm Alpha is centered near the coast of Portugal near 39.9N 9.3W at 18/1630 UTC, or about 65 nm N of Lisbon, Portugal, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 200 nm of the NE quadrant moving across Portugal and portions of NW Spain. Subtropical Storm Alpha will continue moving NE during the next day or so before dissipation. Alpha should move across the coast of west-central Portugal during the next couple of days. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening over land through the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the Mauritania coast near 20N16W to 17N21W. No significant convective is noted at this time with this feature. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two located in the western Gulf. A slow moving cold front continues to sink southward across the Gulf, extending from the Tampa Bay area near 28N83W to 26N90W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 26N90W to 26N94W. A pre-frontal trough is noted south of the front from 27N83W to 25N88W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen along the pre-frontal trough. Convection is currently seen across the western portion of the front interacting with TD Twenty-Two from 22N-28N between 88W-94W. Light to gentle winds are in the eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Seas 2 to 4 ft can be seen across the basin with upwards of 7 ft near T.D. Twenty-Two. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 24.8N 93.6W this evening, move to 25.9N 93.4W Sat morning, 26.3N 93.8W Sat evening, 26.5N 94.6W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.6N 95.6W Sun evening, and 26.9N 96.2W Mon morning. Twenty-Two will weaken to a tropical storm near 27.5N 96.5W by early Tue. A cold front will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing fresh NE winds into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low is located in the east-central Caribbean near 15N65W with a trough extending along the low from 16N60W to 17N71W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen along this feature from 14N-16N between 62W-67W. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 11N76W to the SW Nicaraguan coast near 11N84W. A 1011 mb low is along the monsoon trough near 10N78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 09N-12N between 75W-83W. Light to gentle trades are noted across the Caribbean with moderate trades north of the monsoon trough and moderate trades in the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Seas range 3-5 ft. Major Hurricane Teddy will move northward away from tropical Atlantic waters for the rest of the week. Long-period northeasterly swell generated by Teddy are expected to impact most of the central Atlantic through the next few days. T.S. Wilfred has developed in the eastern Atlantic. This system may impact portions of Atlantic waters well east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, T.S. Wilfred, and Subtropical Storm Alpha. A cold front extends off the NE Florida coast from 31N80W to south of St. Augustine, FL near 30N81W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front in the western Atlantic from 28N- 31N between 76W-79W. Moderate to fresh WSW winds are noted across this area of the Atlantic with seas up to 7 ft. The remnants of Vicky are centered near 20N41W with a minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Showers are seen near the center of this low. A trough is noted in the central Atlantic from 30N32W to 24N34W, about 600 nm S of the Azores. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Outside of the tropical systems, winds are gentle to moderate. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted off the Western Sahara/Mauritania coast. Category 4 Hurricane Teddy will move to 23.3N 57.2W this evening, 25.2N 58.9W Sat morning, 27.1N 60.7W Sat evening, 28.7N 62.2W Sun morning, 30.7N 62.7W Sun evening, and 33.7N 62.2W Mon morning. Teddy will change little in intensity as it moves near 41.4N 62.5W by early Tue. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri night, then gradually weaken and become stationary from near Bermuda into southern Florida early next week. Near gale force northeast winds are expected north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next week, along with building seas. $$ AReinhart