000 AXNT20 KNHC 181047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered near 22.9N 94.1W at 18/0900 UTC or 210 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located within 270 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas, and the Gulf coast of Mexico, during the weekend. The swells will be generated by a combination of the tropical depression, and a cold front that is in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is likely for these swells to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. Please, also consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Category 4 Hurricane Teddy is centered near 21.6N 55.4W at 18/0900 UTC or 480 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 60 nm in the NE semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is located within 480 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Anyone who is in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Hurricane Teddy. Large swells that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. These swells spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States of America by the weekend. It is likely for the swells to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 29W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 11N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and from 10N southward between 10W and 50W. Earlier scatterometer data suggests near gale force winds are occurring on the east side of this low, which does not have a well defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the couple of days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by the end of this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is along 18N/19N between the coast of Africa and 20N. No significant deep convective precipitation accompanies this feature. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two located in the western Gulf. A nearly stationary cold front extends from NE Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 60 nm to the SE of the cold front between 88W and 91W. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two near 22.9N 94.1W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.7N 93.7W this afternoon then move to 24.9N 93.2W Sat morning. Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 25.7N 93.2W Sat afternoon, 25.9N 93.8W Sun morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 94.6W Sun afternoon. Hurricane Twenty-Two will be near 26.3N 95.6W Mon morning, then weaken to a tropical storm off the Texas coast early Tue. A cold front will move through the northeast Gulf through the weekend, bringing fresh NE winds into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclone circulation center is in central sections of Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond northern sections of Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 100 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 75W and 77W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery within 400 nm to 700 nm to the west of Hurricane Teddy. Some of this drier air borders the NE Caribbean Sea and its islands. A second area of comparatively drier air is in the Caribbean Sea, within 500 nm to the SE of Hispaniola, and then curving toward the southern half of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 18N between 64W and 68W, between the two areas of comparatively drier air in subsidence. Major Hurricane Teddy will move northward away from tropical Atlantic waters for the rest of the week. Long- period northeasterly swell generated by Teddy are expected to impact most of the central Atlantic through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Teddy, moving into the Central Atlantic, and low pressure to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. The remnant center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky, is near 21N 39W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to 30N between 24W and 42W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 140 nm to 200 nm to the E and the ESE of the frontal boundary, that passes through South Carolina and SE Georgia to NE Florida. A nearly stalled cold front is along 32N/35N between 39W and 64W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 30N northward between 30W and 70W, and from the Bahamas and 20N northward between 70W and 77W. Category 4 Hurricane Teddy near 21.6N 55.4W 947 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Teddy will move to 22.8N 56.5W this afternoon, 24.7N 58.1W Sat morning, 26.6N 59.9W Sat afternoon, 28.2N 61.6W Sun morning, 29.8N 62.7W Sun afternoon, and 32.2N 62.8W Mon morning. Teddy could remain a Major Hurricane as it moves north and east of Bermuda Mon night and Tue. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri night, then gradually weaken and become stationary from near Bermuda into southern Florida early next week. Near gale force northeast winds are expected north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next week, along with building seas. $$ KONARIK