000 AXNT20 KNHC 172339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Teddy is centered near 20.1N 54.1W at 17/2100 UTC, or 500 nm NE of the Lesser Antilles and 930 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are currently 39 ft with 12 ft seas extending 330 nm of the E semicircle, 300 nm in the SW quadrant, and 360 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 140 nm of the center. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwest for the next few days. Additional strengthening is expected tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible Friday and Saturday. A weakening trend is expected to begin late this weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky is centered near 21.1N 39.1W at 17/2100 UTC, or 912 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. No significant convection is associated with Vicky at this time. Vicky is expected to move WSW through Friday. Additional weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday. Please read the final NHC public advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered in the SW Gulf of Mexico near 21.9N 94.3W at 17/2300 UTC, or 200 nm E of Tampico, Mexico and 287 nm SE of the mouth of the Rio Grande, moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N between 93W-96W. Peak seas are currently 8 ft. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to meander over the western Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. A tropical wave has an axis along 28W south of 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is west of the wave from 08N-12N between 28W-31W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. The potential for tropical cyclone formation is medium for both 48 hr and 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A small segment of the monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 20N19W. No convection is associated with the monsoon trough at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... See discussion of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two in Special Features section. A cold front extends across the Gulf from the coast of Florida near 29N84W to 26N95W. A trough extends southwest from the end of the front from 26N95W to 23N97W. An area of thunderstorms is moving across central Florida near Tampa Bay from 27N-29N between 82W-84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the west-central Gulf from 23N-26N between 87W-95W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted in the NE Gulf in the wake of Sally with strong winds near T.D. Twenty-Two. Gentle to moderate winds are seen elsewhere. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Gulf. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Fri and reach the eastern Gulf by the weekend and become stationary. The gradient between the front and the area of low pressure is expected to lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas over most of the central and western Gulf into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak surface ridging to the north is inducing gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean today. An upper-low is helping to promote isolated thunderstorms from 18N-20N between 77W- 80W. Scattered showers associated with a weak surface trough are impacting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across Panama/Costa Rica near 10N83W to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. No significant showers are present with the trough. A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing over the south-central Caribbean through at least Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See discussion of Hurricane Teddy, Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky, and a tropical wave/low along 28W in the Special Features section. Away from the above three features, moderate to fresh southerly winds are off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, the trades remain generally gentle to moderate across the Atlantic. However, large swell of at least 8 ft are being generated by Hurricane Teddy, which are currently reaching the Leeward Islands the the NW coast of South America to the south and west and to 28N to the north. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri night, then become nearly stationary on Sun and into early next week. Strong northeast winds are expected north of the front, with building seas. $$ AReinhart