000 AXNT20 KNHC 171030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Teddy is centered near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Teddy will move NW and intensify through Fri. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the center. scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 14N to 22N between 46W and 56W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Tropical Storm Vicky is centered near 21.9N 36.7W 1008 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Vicky will weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon, and become a remnant low on Fri. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm NE of center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A 1007 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico is centered near 22N95W. Convective activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning, and upper- level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development. There is a high probability a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. Numerous scattered to strong convection is within 120 nm of the low. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. A tropical wave is along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 24W and 33W. The low is forecast to move west northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The potential for tropical cyclone formation is medium. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the recent activity of tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Atlantic. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Sally continues to move inland in the SE U.S. and is located near 31.8N 85.7W 1000 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NE at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A 1007 mb developing low pressure area in the SW Gulf of Mexico is centered near 22N95W. There is a high probability a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later today. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 24N between 92W and 87W. A stationary front is in the coastal plains of Texas from the upper Texas Gulf coast continuing to the Deep South of Texas, with scattered showers noted along the front. A developing area of low pressure over the SW Gulf will meander over the southern Gulf during the next several days, with high potential to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong east to northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola to the northern coast of Colombia. Isolated showers are noted from 11N to 19N west of 75W. The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across northern Costa Rica to near 12N79W. Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N 56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon. A relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing over the south-central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large swell that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. The swell will spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. Large swell can cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office. Low level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the central and eastern Caribbean Sea islands northward for about 500 nm. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 16N to 25N between 60W and 65W. A stationary front is along 31N from 52W westward. An upper level trough extends from just to the east of Bermuda to Hispaniola. Isolated showers are noted along the frontal boundary. Hurricane Teddy near 18.3N 52.3W 970 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Teddy will move to 19.5N 53.5W this afternoon, 20.9N 54.9W Fri morning, 22.5N 56.5W Fri afternoon, 24.3N 58.2W Sat morning, 26.1N 60.2W Sat afternoon, 27.6N 62.0W Sun morning, and 30.7N 64.0W early Mon. Swell generated by Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, then become nearly stationary on Sun. Strong NE winds are expected north of the front, with building seas. $$ Mundell