000 AXNT20 KNHC 170604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Sally, at 17/0300 UTC, is near 31.9N 86.1W. SALLY is about 30 nm/50 km to the SSE of Montgomery in Alabama. SALLY is moving NE, or 045 degrees, 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate and widely scattered strong is in Alabama, Georiga, and South Carolina. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Hurricane Teddy, at 17/0300 UTC, is near 17.8N 51.5W. TEDDY is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 165 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Vicky, at 17/0300 UTC, is near 21.6N 35.8W. VICKY is moving W, or 275 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 kt. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N94W. The low pressure center has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Upper level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form late this week or during the weekend. The low pressure center is forecast to meander in the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. A stationary front is in the coastal plains of Texas, from the upper Texas Gulf coast, continuing to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are to the northwest of the line that extends from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico, about 225 nm to the WNW of the 1008 mb low pressure center. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. A tropical wave is along 24W/26W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 800 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 16N southward. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form before upper level winds become less favorable during the weekend. This system is forecast to move west northwestward 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N94W. The low pressure center has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. A stationary front is in the coastal plains of Texas, from the upper Texas Gulf coast, continuing to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are to the northwest of the line that extends from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico, about 225 nm to the WNW of the 1008 mb low pressure center. The center of Tropical Storm Sally is in southeastern Alabama. SALLY continues to move NE 6 kt, from tonight into Thursday. Sally will weaken to a tropical depression late tonight. An area of low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico will meander in the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, with the potential to become a tropical depression late this week. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The front will be followed by fresh northeast winds. Swells from Sally in most of the eastern and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico will subside slowly through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola to the northern coast of Colombia. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N, from 73W in northern Colombia to 80W. The monsoon trough curves southwestward to 10N, and then it continues westward across Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 13N from 70W westward. Hurricane Teddy is near 17.8N 51.5W 976 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy will move northwest to 18.9N 52.6W Thu morning, and near 21.8N 55.6W by Fri morning. Swell generated from Teddy will impact the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas this weekend as it continues on a northwest track. This large northeast swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Teddy is forecast to be near 27.0N 61.1W by Sat evening. Little change in intensity is expected as it moves near 30.0N 64.0W late Sun. A strong front will move across the northwest forecast waters from Saturday through Sunday, followed by strong northeast winds. A relatively weak pressure pattern, elsewhere, will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early next week, with fresh trades pulsing in the south central Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large swells that are being generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America. The large swells should spread westward, to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the eastern coast of the United States of America by the weekend. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult bulletins and messages from your local weather office. Surface to low level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands northward for at least 500 nm. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to 25N between 60W and 65W A cold front/stationary front is along 31N/33N from 60W westward. An upper level trough extends from just to the east of Bermuda to Hispaniola. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. Hurricane Teddy is near 17.8N 51.5W 976 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Teddy will move northwest to 18.9N 52.6W Thu morning, and near 21.8N 55.6W by Fri morning. Swell generated from Teddy will impact the Bahamas this weekend as Teddy continues on a northwest track. Teddy is forecast to be near 25.3N 59.1W Sat morning, and 27.0N 61.1W Sat evening. Little change in intensity is expected as it moves to near 30.0N 64.0W late Sun. A strong front will move across the northwest forecast waters, from Saturday through Sunday, followed by strong northeast winds. Large northeast swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week. $$ mt