000 AXNT20 KNHC 161035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Sally is moving onshore near Gulf Shores Alabama at 30.3N 87.7W at 6 AM EDT, moving NNE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 965 mb. Sally will move inland to 30.7N 87.2W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 86.3W Thu morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 84.7W Thu afternoon. Hurricane conditions are expected in the region of the Gulf coast roughly between Pensacola Florida and Mobile Alabama this morning. Due to its slow movement, historic life- threatening flooding is possible along northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong convection is north of 29N between 84W and 89W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Hurricane Paulette is near 41.9N 49.1W 966 mb at 5 AM EDT, moving ENE at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Paulette will become extratropical later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. The center of Hurricane Teddy is near 15.8N 49.0W 976 mb at 5 AM EDT, moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Teddy will continue to move northwest in the west-central Atlantic and intensify through Thu. Scattered to numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 21N between 44W and 53W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Vicky is near 21.6N 33.9W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Vicky will move westward and weaken today, then become a tropical depression by Thu afternoon, and a remnant low soon afterward. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the center. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 23W/24W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 23W and 28W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains in Africa. The monsoon trough and the ITCZ have been disrupted by the activity of the current tropical cyclones. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure is in the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm NW of the center. A stationary front is in the coastal plains of Texas, passing through east Texas, continuing into southern Texas. Hurricane Sally near 30.0N 87.7W 968 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. Swells from Sally will continue to affect most of the eastern and central Gulf through the rest of the week. Elsewhere, weak low pressure will persist over the southwest Gulf through the next few days with a low chance of tropical development. Looking ahead, a weak front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat followed by fresh northeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia to beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N and west of 76W. Hurricane Teddy near 15.8N 49.0W 976 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Large NE swell from Teddy will impact the west-central Atlantic waters through the end of the weekend. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades through late week, with fresh trades pulsing over the south-central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Swell generated by Hurricane Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Ocean, Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and sections of the U. S. east coast today. A 1014 mb low pressure center near 23N55W is the remnant low of tropical cyclone Rene. Isolated convection is within 90 nm SW of the center. An upper level trough extends from 30N66W to Hispaniola, and continues into the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm east of the trough, north of 23N. A stationary front passes near Bermuda, and continues to the coast of Georgia along 31N. Scattered moderate is within 75 nm either side of the frontal boundary. Hurricane Teddy near 15.8N 49.0W 976 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Teddy will move to 16.8N 50.0W this afternoon, 18.3N 51.5W Thu morning, 19.7N 52.9W Thu afternoon, 21.3N 54.6W Fri morning, 22.7N 56.1W Fri afternoon, and 24.2N 57.8W Sat morning. Teddy is forecast to move NW and strengthen, becoming a major hurricane by Thu night. Teddy will begin to weaken early next week as it lifts north of the area. A front may approach the waters off northeast Florida late Sat. Large NE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through the end of the weekend. $$ Mundell